NFL Week 11 betting takeaways: Who has the best excuses?
No one is good.
That's an obvious exaggeration, but it's a four-word phrase to help any NFL bettor remember this is a week-to-week league.
The Buccaneers remain atop my ratings ahead of their Monday Night Football clash with the Giants, but it's in part because they have the best excuses. With Tampa missing key players on both sides of the ball, it's easy to believe in what it can be when back to full strength. Even if the expectation before the cavalry arrives is close to the high 60s, a Super Bowl win from 10 months ago helps the team's credibility.
| TEAM | RATING | RANGE |
|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | 77 | 65-85 |
| Bills | 71 | 50-80 |
| Cowboys | 69 | 45-80 |
| Rams | 69 | 60-75 |
| Packers | 68 | 60-75 |
| Cardinals | 68 | 55-75 |
| Ravens | 67 | 45-75 |
| Chiefs | 66 | 45-80 |
| Chargers | 66 | 50-75 |
| Patriots | 63 | 40-70 |
| 49ers | 59 | 50-65 |
| Vikings | 59 | 45-60 |
| Browns | 59 | 55-75 |
| Colts | 57 | 35-60 |
| Saints | 55 | 45-65 |
| Bengals | 54 | 35-70 |
| Steelers | 52 | 40-60 |
| Titans | 51 | 50-65 |
| Eagles | 51 | 30-60 |
| Broncos | 47 | 40-55 |
| Seahawks | 46 | 40-60 |
| Washington | 45 | 40-55 |
| Panthers | 45 | 35-55 |
| Raiders | 44 | 35-55 |
| Dolphins | 39 | 30-55 |
| Bears | 38 | 35-50 |
| Giants | 37 | 30-50 |
| Falcons | 35 | 25-50 |
| Jaguars | 31 | 25-40 |
| Lions | 26 | 20-35 |
| Jets | 25 | 20-35 |
| Texans | 24 | 15-30 |
Running out of excuses
The Bills were always confusing as 7/7.5-point favorites against a live Colts team that gave them all they could handle in last year's playoffs. But a total annihilation was unexpected, and it requires a drop down to 71/100. When things are good for Buffalo, they're really good, so the team's range remains high. But the low-end performances are piling up.
Sunday's game in Seattle marked the unofficial end of the Russell Wilson-Pete Carroll era; the Seahawks don't have any excuses for that performance in a game they had to win to keep their season alive. The pieces on the field likely won't add up to fair performance going forward, so we'll get out ahead of their precipitous drop.
No excuses necessary
The Cardinals get another road win with Colt McCoy under center, but last week can't be forgotten. Arizona's average rating goes unchanged with the team entering its bye and Kyler Murray set to return in Week 13.
The Cowboys lost - and covered neither the spread nor the teasers - but the fact they weren't blown out in a situation that could have spiraled out of control was impressive. Missing its best wide receivers and pass-rushers, Dallas could have found itself in a rout, but the Cowboys hung in with the Chiefs (whose rating also doesn't change).
The market massively downgraded the Ravens after they announced Lamar Jackson's absence - and the move down to a near pick'em against the Bears was almost insufficient. Tyler Huntley was not good, and though Baltimore won, it's clear the low end of the Ravens' range wasn't low enough.
Spider-Man memes
In a season with such intense week-to-week fluctuation, there are a few teams that might see a version of themselves in a cross-conference opponent.
Other than Baker Mayfield, the Browns were nearly as healthy as they've been all season and faced a professional quarterback in name only. They barely won and now require a ratings drop to the level of the 49ers. San Francisco got a bump after beating the Rams and consolidated that with a win over the Jaguars, but the Browns and 49ers remain equally frustrating overall.
The Colts, meanwhile, are taking the mantle from the Vikings - for now - as the team that delivers high-end performances exclusively as an underdog. If these clubs met on a neutral field, it would have to be a pick'em. We'll sit back and watch Kirk Cousins and Carson Wentz point at each other in confusion.
As we predicted elsewhere, the Titans aren't the same without Derrick Henry. But at least they've banked the wins, even after giving one back Sunday. If the market wants to keep overvaluing this version of the team, we'll continue to bet against it. But that seems unlikely with a trip to face the market-darling Patriots on deck.
Back-half movers
The Eagles have played to their peak for arguably four straight weeks; maybe that's just their average. It seems unlikely Philadelphia can go higher, but covering comfortably and often is the best sign that a team might be better than average.
It's time to drop the Falcons, Panthers, Bears, and Raiders. The Jets, Jaguars, and Lions don't move because they're already so low - the bar they have to clear is almost on the ground.
The Texans win! They faced the same Titans team that lost to the Jets, though, so the excitement will be tempered. Still, the market has Houston at -3 for next week's clash with the Jets. That feels wrong.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.