NFL Week 11 best bets: Ravens to bounce back after puzzling loss
We were half a point away from a 2-1 record on our NFL picks against the spread in Week 10. Here are our best bets in Week 11:
Washington @ Panthers (-3.5, 43), 1 p.m.
The Panthers finally looked like the best version of themselves in last week's 34-10 win over the Cardinals. And while it may be a coincidence that it was Cam Newton's first game back with his old team, it's easy to see how he immediately energized this otherwise lethargic offense in his handful of snaps.
Newton will get the reins after a full week of practice with the team, and he's surrounded by the talent to succeed in his first start since 2020. Christian McCaffrey is starting to look like himself again after averaging 7.3 yards per carry last week, and the Panthers' entire receiving corps is healthy for Week 11.
The same can't be said for Washington, which will be without star edge rusher Chase Young and likely won't have a fully healthy Terry McLaurin, who is nursing a shoulder injury he suffered last week. Carolina's defense ranks No. 1 in yards allowed per drive (23.31) and No. 2 in points allowed per drive (1.56), so that unit should have no issue halting a wounded Washington attack.
Pick: Panthers -3.5
Lions @ Browns (-12, 43.5), 1 p.m.
One of these teams needs to put up at least 22 points for this game to hit the over, which is much easier said than done. The Browns have been held below that mark in five of their last seven games - including last Sunday's seven-point effort - while the Lions haven't scored 20 points in eight straight.
Quarterback injuries further complicate these teams' scoring potential in Week 11. Baker Mayfield left last week's contest with a knee injury - the third time this year he's left a game early - but will start for Cleveland. The same can't be said for Detroit starter Jared Goff, who didn't practice this week and is trending in the wrong direction ahead of Sunday.
If he misses this contest, the Lions will turn to journeyman QB Tim Boyle. He's never made an NFL start since going undrafted in 2018 and has missed the entire season thus far after breaking his thumb in the preseason. How are we getting to 44 points in this one?
Pick: Under 43.5
Ravens (-5, 44.5) @ Bears, 1 p.m.
It may seem foolish to back the Ravens as road favorites after they lost in this spot a week ago, but a muggy Thursday game in Miami is hardly a standard by which to judge one of the AFC's most dangerous teams. And there's no better buy-low spot than this one for Baltimore.
Don't read too much into a team getting tripped up on a short week. Since 2016, teams that lose as a Thursday favorite are 14-6-1 ATS in their following contest, winning 11 of those games by double digits. The Ravens are also 5-2 ATS following a loss since the start of last season, outscoring their opponents by 5.4 points per game across those seven contests.
The matchup here also favors Baltimore as the Bears have struggled to defend the run and are among the league's worst on offense when facing pressure. That's not a strong recipe for success against the Ravens, who are the league's most prolific rushing team and rank in the top three in pressure rate (28.5%) and blitz rate (33.2%).
Pick: Ravens -5
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].