Patriots-Falcons best bets: Can New England stay scorching in Hotlanta?
There might not be an NFL team playing better football right now than the New England Patriots. Their four-game winning streak will be put to the test Thursday night against an Atlanta Falcons club coming off a miserable Week 10.
Here's how we're betting Pats-Falcons:
C Jackson Cowart: Falcons team total under 20.5
The Patriots have stolen headlines in recent weeks for their gaudy scoring outputs, dropping 45 points a week ago and 54 a few weeks prior. But this is still an offense that's been held below 30 points in each of its other eight games this season, making it risky to lay the points here on the road.
The more consistent - and actionable - unit for this club is its stellar defense, which ranks fifth in defensive DVOA, third in points allowed per drive (1.61), and second in points per game (17.7). New England has held its previous two opponents to a combined 13 points and is surrendering just 12.5 per contest during the team's four-game win streak.
The Falcons' reputation as offensive juggernauts is much more favorable than the reality after last week's three-point dud in Dallas. Atlanta's offense has scored 25.8 points per game against teams with below-average scoring defenses, but that drops to a mere 12.3 points against top-half units. Expect a performance much closer to the latter mark on a short week against Bill Belichick and Co.
Alex Moretto: Falcons +7
As Matt will get into in further detail below, this line is a drastic overreaction to Week 10. The Patriots laid a beating on the Browns - Cleveland didn't have Nick Chubb or Kareem Hunt, and they basically started you and I at wide receiver - while the Falcons were dealt a beating at the hands of the Cowboys. The result? New England is valued at its highest point, and Atlanta is at its lowest.
You can't price the Falcons as 8-point 'dogs on the road against the Cowboys, then come back and have them as 7-point home 'dogs against the Pats a week later. New England wasn't even 7-point favorites on the road against the Jets! Sure, we know how these games all turned out, but it doesn't change the fact that getting a touchdown at home with the Falcons is a terrific value.
As a bonus, Cordarrelle Patterson might actually be available for this one when it seemed unlikely just a day or two ago. The versatile playmaker is a game-time decision, and with the team finally moving on from plodding back Mike Davis, the only way is up for this offense. Matt Ryan is a veteran signal-caller who won't be flummoxed by Bill Belichick's defense, as the Falcons do enough to keep it close in what should also be a low-scoring game.
Matt Russell: Falcons +7
The Falcons closed as 7.5-point underdogs at Dallas last week. Now they're 7-point underdogs at home to New England. Before even accounting for 2-3 points of a venue change, for all the Patriots' success recently, New England's not a half-point away from the Cowboys, and the team's definitely not 3 points better once we factor in the home-field advantage.
The recent success is what's making the market go wild for the Patriots, in conjunction with the Falcons getting blown out by the Cowboys. However, we can't be this reactive to recent results if we're going to be successful long-term bettors.
This game should be played at a conservative pace, and with each possession being valuable, look for the Falcons to score enough, even via the field goal, to stay within this number. Should Mac Jones struggle on the short week with an uncharacteristic turnover or two, the Falcons will have a chance to do what they did in Week 9 in New Orleans - win outright as a touchdown underdog.