NFL Week 14 line moves: What to make of the market

As pandemic news continues to dominate headlines, it's shaping the NFL market as well. A few Week 14 lines have shifted due to COVID-19 updates, while others have gone in a direction that might make novice bettors nauseous.

Falcons @ Panthers (-2.5, 41.5)

The Panthers opened at -3, and bettors jumped on the Falcons under the premise that Cam Newton and Carolina don't deserve to be a full field goal favorite over any team with a pulse. Why are the Panthers favored at all?

Atlanta was an 11-point home underdog last week, while Carolina was a 1.5-point road favorite in its last game. If we took the jerseys off and just looked objectively at those closing lines, we can understand why the edge goes to the latter.

Secondly, the Panthers already beat the Falcons - in Atlanta - without any production from the quarterback. Can Newton match Sam Darnold's 13-for-24, 129-yard effort in that victory? Even with the low bar we've set for him, I think he can.

Ravens @ Browns (-2.5, 42.5)

This line wouldn't be more than a point off of PK, but it's moved off the opener of Browns -1 because it's a nightmare schedule spot for the Ravens. Cleveland has only had to worry about Baltimore for three weeks, and while the loss in Charm City hurt, the Browns get an unheard-of second straight chance at Lamar Jackson. Meanwhile, the Ravens had a knock-down affair in Pittsburgh in between. Grab the -2.5 before it goes to -3.

Cowboys @ Washington Football Team (+4.5, 48)

This game has bounced from the opener at Cowboys -4.5 to -3.5 before returning to its original position as big bettors battle with a split interpretation of where the value lies. I'll bet on Dallas here, with a finally healthy defense and an offense that matches up nicely with Washington's weaknesses.

Jaguars @ Titans (-8.5, 43.5)

I thought I dreamed the Titans opened -11 in this game. That's how briefly it was available before moving to TEN -8.5.

No team needed a week off more than Tennessee as the squad dragged its way to the bye. Now that the Titans have gotten over the ridiculous Adrian Peterson experiment, they can use a multi-faceted run attack to mimic their offense with Derrick Henry. If the club can run for 200+ yards against the Patriots, it can do the same against the Jaguars. With Ryan Tannehill becoming more efficient and the defense well-rested, Tennessee can put pressure on Jacksonville to support oddsmakers' opening line.

Raiders @ Chiefs (-10, 48)

The Chiefs got bumped from -9.5 on Thursday when limits increased, but that's not warranted after they probably shouldn't have scored bettors the cover on Sunday night. The Raiders can score, and with a couple of defensive adjustments learned from other teams, Las Vegas can hang in by avoiding the critical turnovers that felled both the club and the Broncos in Kansas City's last two matchups.

Saints @ Jets (+5.5, 43)

The Jets opened as 6-point underdogs, and that quickly moved as bettors used their early-week dollars to point out the Saints' lack of wins since pulling out a victory when Jameis Winston went down against the Bucs. I have this closer to NO -3, so there's some value left here, but maybe we'll see another +6 by kickoff.

Seahawks @ Texans (+8.5, 40.5)

The Texans have cut Zach Cunningham after suspending Justin Reid, both for locker room-related issues. That's a sign the team's inner-workings are a disaster, so the Seahawks are the favorite by more than a touchdown - a wild circumstance in and of itself. Steer clear of this contest.

Lions @ Broncos (-10, 42)

The Lions are coming off their first win and then, in true Detroit fashion, have had the flu ravage the locker room this week. Now the club heads outdoors to Denver - already a reason to like the Broncos with the line opening -8 - so the boost to -10 is designed to slow down the ATS betting and teasing of Denver under a field goal.

Giants @ Chargers (-10, 43)

We may be looking at a Jake Fromm NFL debut, and the line has moved from +10.5. All it took was almost hourly Covid-19 updates from the Chargers, who put a handful of starters in jeopardy of missing Sunday's game. This is another one you can skip and not feel like you're missing out on anything.

49ers @ Bengals (+1.5, 49)

Joe Burrow didn't practice due to the much-publicized pinky finger issue and less-discussed knee soreness, moving the Bengals from short favorites to small underdogs. This shift opens up the possibility of a Cincinnati teaser leg, which might be even more valuable once we're 100% sure Burrow is good to go.

Rams @ Cardinals (-2.5, 51.5)

Beware of the early move off +3. The Rams opened there, and despite the assumption that bettors would file in on the Cardinals for more than a week, oddsmakers were quick to shift Los Angeles to +2.5. Will the +3 come back? I'll be hoping it does before kickoff Monday night.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.