NFL Week 14 player props: QBs to back and fade

Another 6-4 week helps us creep closer to the magic number of 60% (77-55-1) on the season thanks to strong results from our quarterback props. So we'll focus on the position here in Week 14 as we look to stay successful.

Dak Prescott under 0.5 interceptions (-115)

Prescott's production hasn't been ideal since returning from injury, with his best statistical game coming in the Cowboys' Thanksgiving loss to the Raiders, but this contest sets him up for success. Washington has just six interceptions all season. While Washington has been able to win games with its bend-but-don't-break, disciplined defense, Prescott should find some room in the secondary courtesy of a healthy offensive line that will go up against a defensive line missing Montez Sweat and Chase Young.

I expect the Cowboys to shut down Taylor Heinicke thanks to Demarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory bolstering the pass rush. If the Cowboys don't find themselves in a shootout, Prescott won't need to force throws late and will play a clean game.

Kareem Hunt over 52.5 rushing + receiving yards

I have to believe the Browns looked at the tape from their visit to Baltimore and thought to themselves, "Why didn't we get the ball to Kareem?" Hunt returned from injury and should have been used as an intermediary in the passing game, as Baker Mayfield struggled to push the ball downfield in a 16-10 loss.

With two more weeks to prepare for the rematch at home, I expect better success on the ground and a more concerted effort to target Hunt out of the backfield. He'll sail over his prescribed yardage.

Taysom Hill under 194.5 passing yards

Obviously, there's the possibility that mallet finger, or another malady, will prevent Hill from finishing this game. Even if he makes it through 60 minutes, I doubt the Saints will want him throwing the ball a lot after what we saw last Thursday against Dallas.

I expect this contest to be close with two conservative game plans, resulting in the Saints focusing on the run game with Hill and Alvin Kamara, who's back from injury.

Cam Newton over 30.5 rushing yards

There are a few forces conspiring for a winner here. Maybe it's Newton's struggles or the Panthers firing offensive coordinator Joe Brady, but there appears to be a desire to focus on the run game from head coach Matt Rhule.

The Panthers won the teams' first meeting without production from the quarterback aside from Sam Darnold getting out of the pocket and contributing in the run game. The Falcons give up yards on the ground to QBs, and the Panthers will lean on Newton to finish off a win.

Davis Mills over 216.5 passing yards

Backing the Texans' offense to do anything is risky, but Mills will get the rest of the season to show what he can do. Mills has the talent and should have the opportunity in this game against the Seahawks' underwhelming defense, which has a handful of new injuries to deal with. Houston could very well be behind and throwing late, which should help Mills clear the relatively low number here.

Dontrell Hilliard anytime touchdown (+225)

While they limped into the bye, the Titans may have found something with Hilliard. Twelve carries for 131 yards against the Patriots is an attention-getter, even if he split carries with D'Onta Foreman.

There should be more than enough carries to go around, as I expect the Titans to beat the Jaguars easily coming off their bye week. With Hilliard priced higher than Foreman and Jeremy McNichols, he's worth a bet.

Derek Carr under 258.5 passing yards

I'm buying in on the Chiefs' defense while remaining wary of the prices we have to pay to back their offense. So, in thinking this might be a closer game than the first matchup played in the Las Vegas' cozy confines, I'll bet that Derek Carr isn't able to hit the big play and that the Raiders have similar success on the ground that the Broncos did last week in Kansas City. All that adds up to Carr's yardage falling short.

George Kittle over 66.5 receiving yards

Did you see this guy in Seattle last week?! I know that's a basic attitude to have in handicapping, but Kittle appears as healthy as he has been all season and was a menace to the Seahawks' secondary. It helps his production when the 49ers are without Deebo Samuel, which seems to be the case again this week. But even if Samuel's there to take some targets away, this number is too low for the premier tight end.

Jared Goff under 207.5 passing yards

The Lions go from a dramatic first win indoors to an outdoor game in Denver after being ravaged by the flu all week. This spells disaster for Detroit. Jared Goff's never performed well in the elements, so we'll fade his production Sunday.

Josh Allen over 297.5 passing yards

If you've ever played a round of golf in the rain and then come out the next day to play in perfect conditions, you gain a new appreciation for not having to worry about the elements. That will be the case for the Bills' offense in a plus-matchup against the Buccaneers' secondary in Tampa. In what should be a shootout, Allen will throw for 300 yards.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.