NFL Week 14 best bets: Bucs worth the price vs. struggling Bills

We finished just 1-2 against the spread on our NFL best bets in Week 13, highlighted by the Lions' win over the Vikings but foiled by a crazy ending to the Ravens-Steelers game. Here are our best bets for Week 14:

Raiders @ Chiefs (-10, 48), 1 p.m. ET

The Chiefs defense went from being a liability to a strength seemingly overnight, but the results have sustained for weeks now, and the under has been cashing week in and week out for this group.

Kansas City has allowed just 11.2 points per game since the start of November - the third-fewest in the NFL. The Chiefs also recorded 12 combined sacks over that span and held all five opponents to 250 passing yards or fewer. That includes a dominant Week 10 showing against the Raiders, who mustered just 14 points thanks in part to a wholly ineffective ground game.

That showing was no fluke, as Las Vegas has scored 16 or fewer points in four of its last five games. The Raiders won't do much better Sunday if their offensive line can't diffuse this surging Chiefs pass rush.

Pick: Raiders under 18.5 points

Seahawks (-8.5, 40.5) @ Texans, 1 p.m.

I've been as critical of Davis Mills as anybody since he made his pro debut in Week 2, and I never thought I'd find myself betting him a few months later. But plans change when a team as uninspiring as the Seahawks is priced as massive road favorites.

Seattle has no business laying this many points on the road after just one victory since October, which was fueled by a fake-punt touchdown and an improbable goal-line stand. We still haven't seen any cohesion from the Seahawks' offense since Russell Wilson's injury, making it hard to buy into a blowout victory in any spot.

Fittingly, the Texans have stayed within nine points - or won outright - in three of their last four games, while Seattle has just two wins by nine or more points this season and none since Week 8. Don't get caught laying this many points on a team that hasn't earned it.

Pick: Texans +8.5

Bills @ Buccaneers (-3.5, 54), 4:25 p.m.

The Buccaneers have hovered between -3 and -3.5 since before the Bills' loss Monday night when Buffalo allowed the Patriots to run roughshod with little resistance. This line didn't make any sense before that game, and it makes even less sense now.

What exactly have we seen from the Bills in the past two months to justify pricing them as near-equals to the defending champions? Buffalo has lost four of its last seven games and is 1-4 this year against teams with a winning record, and we haven't seen this thin secondary tested since losing star cornerback Tre'Davious White for the season.

Meanwhile, the Bucs have cruised to three straight wins and rank No. 1 in DVOA with a 4-1 ATS record as favorites. This is the best team in the league and deserves more respect from oddsmakers against a club that hasn't proven itself among the NFL's elite.

Pick: Buccaneers -3.5

C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].