NFL Week 15 O/U best bets: Bengals, Broncos due for offensive explosion
We struck out on our three total plays a week ago, foiled by mostly irrelevant touchdowns late in all three contests. Can we get back on track in Week 15?
Raiders @ Browns (-3, 40.5)
Dec. 18, 4:30 p.m.
After sky-high totals for these teams early in the year, both have crashed back down to earth in recent weeks and neither looks poised to change that anytime soon.
Let's start with the Browns, who are dealing with a massive COVID-19 outbreak that could threaten the status of this game. Seven of the eight players that Cleveland placed on the reserve list are on offense and four are starters, including star receiver Jarvis Landry, tight end Austin Hooper, and tackle Jedrick Wills. Those losses could cripple a unit that's scored 17 or fewer points in seven of its last 10 games.
The Raiders haven't been much better, with Sunday's nine-point output marking the fifth time in six games they've scored fewer than 17 points. The first team to 20 will win this one, which bodes well for under bettors.
Pick: Under 40.5
Texans @ Jaguars (-3.5, 39.5)
Dec. 19, 1 p.m.
The Davis Mills experience is back in full force, and while he did post a career high in passing yards (331) a week ago, the Texans still scored just 13 points - which, incredibly, was his team's third-highest scoring total in his seven starts.
Don't be fooled by his surface-level stats, as much of that came in garbage time. Mills completed just one pass beyond 20 yards the entire game and owns the third-worst quarterback rating (29.2) among 32 qualified starters. Jaguars passer Trevor Lawrence ranks 28th in QBR (32), and his side has averaged 9.1 points per game over the last seven weeks after being shut out Sunday.
Since 2013, games with a total below 40 are 62-47-1 to the under, including 31-20-1 to the under in the last 52 contests. When the market is bracing for a low-scoring affair, take notice.
Pick: Under 39.5
Bengals @ Broncos (-1.5, 43.5)
Dec. 19, 4:05 p.m.
This may not seem like an obvious over on the surface, as these teams have averaged a combined 23 points over the past two weeks. That would barely scratch over this total if the trend sustains. But these offenses' underlying numbers are much more favorable.
The Bengals nearly totaled 400 yards a week ago but scored just 23 points behind a nasty case of fumblitis, which came a week after four turnovers foiled another efficient offensive showing. Cincinnati ranks fifth this season in points per play (0.44) and seventh in points per game (27.2), and the team is just three weeks removed from a 41-point explosion against the Steelers.
The Broncos are coming off their own 38-point effort, and they managed 404 yards the week before despite scoring just nine points in that contest. These offenses are mostly healthy, for now, and they're on track for a shoot-out in this one.
Pick: Over 43.5
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].