NFL Week 15 player props: Which stars will shine?

A 5-5 split last week knocked us down about half a unit, but it was a small price to pay for a wild Sunday in the player-prop game. At 88-60-1 on the season, we can chuckle when Jared Goff and Derek Carr barely go over their totals thanks to blowout game scripts. Kareem Hunt suffering an injury was decidedly less funny.

Jonathan Taylor under 95.5 rushing yards

If you can bet on Bill Belichick, you do it. In this case, we'll do so by fading his opponents' best weapon. The Patriots have had two weeks to form a plan that will force Carson Wentz to beat them. Whether he's up to it or not will decide this game, with New England holding Taylor under a near-100-yard total. This is a winnable bet even if the Colts star is involved at the goal line or in the passing game, as major threats rarely explode against New England.

Dak Prescott under 36.5 longest completion

I'm trying to find a way to reasonably fade Prescott because he still doesn't look right. He couldn't have had a cozier game script last week as the Cowboys' defense did the heavy lifting against Washington, but he still threw two interceptions to make things dicey for Dallas.

The problem with fading Prescott is that it depends on the Giants' defense getting off the field. Instead of playing the total passing yards prop, rely on New York's secondary to simply keep the Cowboys' threats in front of it.

Josh Allen over 260.5 passing yards

There was some worry all week about Josh Allen's ankle, but he's off the Bills' injury report for a must-win game at home against the Panthers. Though Carolina has a decent defense, Allen may be more likely to stay behind the line of scrimmage after a game in which he had over 100 yards rushing.

Even if there's weather to deal with in Orchard Park on Sunday, Allen should be back there slinging it around. This total is too short in a game Buffalo can't afford to drop.

Trevor Lawrence over 212.5 passing yards / over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+155)

The above could have just said "over everything," as this may very well become Lawrence's best NFL game thus far. The Texans are atrocious in all facets and arrive on the heels of Urban Meyer's exit. Split a unit on this pair of bets.

D'Onta Foreman over 50.5 rushing yards

This game seems similar to the Titans' Week 12 contest against the Patriots: Tennessee runs the ball well enough, but it just doesn't matter in an eventual road loss. This number is fairly short against a Steelers run defense that left gaping holes for Dalvin Cook the last time these teams met. Even if Pittsburgh has tightened up, Mike Vrabel and Co. will "Titan up" their game plan and remain unwilling to let Ryan Tannehill make or break the offense.

Christian Kirk over 54.5 receiving yards

DeAndre Hopkins is out for the rest of the regular season, and Kirk's snaps increase when he's out. The Lions' shoddy secondary and the Cardinals' need to use Kirk down the stretch should see him approach a season-high in targets. Targets translate to yards, and Kirk is a threat downfield, which means this number is short.

Tua Tagovailoa under 251.5 passing yards

Betting markets might be getting a little too high on the Dolphins, and even a win doesn't guarantee Tagovailoa a big game. The Jets' defense isn't any good, but he'll be missing his favorite target in Jaylen Waddle, who gives Miami the explosive element that would make it easier to clear a number this high.

Aaron Rodgers over 2.5 pass touchdowns (+140)

Lamar Jackson's status has dominated the headlines, but the bigger issue for the Ravens is a secondary that doesn't have much left in it. That's a problem with Rodgers and the Packers coming to town.

Joe Burrow under 259.5 passing yards

The Broncos have taken money all week, so someone thinks they'll contain the Bengals. If Cincinnati wins this game, it will be because Joe Mixon controls the contest at elevation. Either way, I'll bet against a banged-up Burrow facing a good secondary.

George Kittle over 68.5 receiving yards

If the current version of Kittle continues to see lines under 75 yards, I'll keep betting on him to exceed expectations. Perhaps there's a belief the 49ers won't need to rely on their pass game, especially late. But the Falcons could keep this competitive to the end. If that's the case, Kittle - as usual - will be a threat throughout.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.