NFL Week 16 best bets: Bucs too injured to trust vs. division rival

Somehow, someway, we went 2-1 on our NFL best bets in a week derailed by COVID-19 outbreaks, postponements, and unpredictable line movement. Can we sweep the board in a more "normal" Week 16?

Buccaneers (-10, 43) @ Panthers, 1 p.m. ET

At full strength, the Buccaneers are the league's best team and deserve to be laying double digits on the road. This roster is far from healthy, though, and it's hard to justify this much faith in a group we haven't seen succeed.

Tampa Bay's 9-0 loss to the Saints last week also cost the team its top two receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin - one for this game, one for the season - and its top rusher in Leonard Fournette. The Bucs also placed Lavonte David on injured reserve and will likely be without safety Antoine Winfield and edge rusher Jason Pierre-Paul on Sunday.

That's a lot of firepower to be missing against a Panthers team that, while inconsistent, still owns the second-best defense by yards allowed (294.4). If Sam Darnold's return from IR can give any sort of boost to Carolina's lackadaisical offense, this one will be closer than the teams' records would suggest.

Pick: Panthers +10

Ravens @ Bengals (-3, 45), 1 p.m.

This is a crucial game for the Ravens, who are essentially in must-win mode to keep their playoff hopes alive. This is also a terrible spot for them to actually win.

As of Thursday, Baltimore had placed 17 players on the COVID-19 reserve list, including nearly its entire secondary and outside linebacking corps. That's back-breaking news for a team that's already been ravaged by injuries to its defensive backfield and is still waiting to see if former MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson can suit up Sunday.

Even when (mostly) healthy, the Ravens have lost three straight games and five of their last eight dating back to a 41-17 beatdown by the Bengals in Week 7. Oddsmakers pricing these teams as near-equals is a sign of respect for the Ravens' tenure atop the AFC North, but it doesn't reflect what we'll see Sunday.

Pick: Bengals -3

Steelers @ Chiefs (-10, 46), 4:25 p.m.

This total hinges entirely on whether the Chiefs can activate Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce from the COVID-19 reserve list before Sunday's kickoff. If they aren't available, it's hard to see where the points will come from on either side.

Those two star pass-catchers combined for 339 yards and three touchdowns a week ago and have accounted for more than half of the Chiefs' receiving yards (54.1%) and touchdowns (53.3%) across the entire season. Losing those two would leave Patrick Mahomes with the likes of Mecole Hardman, Byron Pringle, and Josh Gordon as his top weapons Sunday. Yikes.

Conversely, the Steelers have scored 20 or fewer points in three of their last four games and haven't faced a defense as stout as Kansas City's at any point in that stretch. The first team to 21 points should be the victor here.

Pick: Under 46

C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].