NFL Week 17 player props: Targeting tight ends and tighter coverage

The Packers drew up a play for Marcedes Lewis, which is all we can ask for with a +650 shot. Aaron Rodgers rolled to his right inside the 5-yard line with the big tight end as the target, but they just couldn't connect. We were that close to an anytime touchdown long shot winner, which would have turned around a 4-5-1 week.

Now sitting at 94-68-2 on the season, we go searching for 10 worthy player prop plays on a fully-loaded Sunday slate.

Rob Gronkowski anytime touchdown (+150)

It's been a while since Gronkowski found the end zone. The Buccaneers should have their way with the Jets' defense, and with so many of Tampa's own defensive players out, they might need to. After a few drops in the last three games, expect Tom Brady to look for his buddy in the end zone. He may want to get the big tight end a confidence booster before the last game of the season when Tampa could give Gronk the week off.

Dawson Knox anytime touchdown (+190)

While I'm sure Kyle Pitts will be the tight end that scores in this game - since he did everything but get the touchdown we hoped for last week - it's Knox who's the bigger red-zone threat. With A.J. Terrell getting the Stefon Diggs assignment, there's no reason Josh Allen should force the ball that way in tight down in the red zone. That means the Bills' tight end should be available more than a few times to cash this bet.

Dallas Goedert over 52.5 receiving yards

I'm not smart enough to know what the Giants did against Goedert to hold him to three catches for 28 yards in December, but in between those two games, the Eagles' tight end had his way with Washington and the Jets. He's been a focal point of the offense since Philadelphia moved on from Zach Ertz, and we may be getting a small discount because of the Giants' ability to hold Goedert down. Washington ranks in the bottom-10 in the NFL in yards allowed per game to tight ends.

Tua Tagovailoa under 247.5 passing yards

This is a tough spot for the Dolphins as a whole. A seven-game winning streak is impressive, but the list of teams they've beaten isn't. More importantly, it's the second of back-to-back road games on a short week, while the Titans remain at home with extra rest after their galvanizing Thursday night win over the 49ers. Offense will be harder to come by for Tagovailoa with the pressure the Titans' defensive front can bring.

Joe Burrow under 280.5 passing yards

Speaking of levels of difficulty for an offense, it can't get much easier than the Ravens' "off-the-street" secondary that the Bengals faced last week. We know by now that the Chiefs have turned things around on defense, allowing less than six yards per attempt in their last three games. If this contest is as close as many think it will be, the game script won't favor Burrow to have a ton of passing yardage.

Matthew Stafford over 286.5 passing yards

If we fade Burrow off of his success throwing against the Ravens, we probably have to back Stafford to have similar success here. The Rams have been talking about getting Cooper Kupp to 2,000 yards this season, but I imagine John Harbaugh has heard some of that chatter. That should result in plenty of drop backs for Stafford, but he may be staring down two defensive backs when looking Kupp's way. Stafford will spread it around and get to 300 yards.

Davis Mills over 234.5 passing yards

We might be getting over our skis on Mills here with a total this high, but the point spread suggests the Texans will need to throw the ball throughout. We've done well backing the rookie quarterback, who has looked better than most expected after a rough first impression. The 49ers' secondary can be taken advantage of deep, so the Texans might as well try them.

Keenan Allen over 73.5 receiving yards

Getting many of their offensive playmakers back off the COVID-19 list will help the Chargers, as will the Broncos loading up theirs. Denver deploys a zone scheme that allows for Allen to find the soft spots within the defense. After getting upset by the Texans last week, Justin Herbert should look to his most trustworthy target to get back on track. Allen had 85 yards in the first meeting in Denver.

Taysom Hill under 192.5 passing yards

The Panthers are fifth in the league in pass yards allowed per attempt, and Hill already isn't known for his passing. This game will be a grim watch as both quarterbacks struggle to move the ball. At least on the Saints' side, more play calls will involve the quarterback tucking it and running.

Kyler Murray over 30.5 rushing yards

At some point, someone will nudge Kliff Kingsbury and the Cardinals awake before the playoffs start. You'll recall the Cowboys stubbornly sticking with their man-to-man defense against the Raiders while Derek Carr torched them on Thanksgiving. That defense will have its back turned to Murray, who, in desperation mode to get the offense jump-started, will have some room to run.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.