NFL Week 17 best bets: Rams' aerial attack will gash beleaguered Ravens
We went 1-1-1 against the spread on our NFL best bets a week ago, our first .500 mark of the season. Here are our favorite plays for Week 17:
Rams (-5.5, 46.5) @ Ravens, 1 p.m. ET
The Ravens getting demolished by the Bengals last week may have been one of the most predictable results of the entire season, given the state of this Baltimore roster. And it won't get any easier this week against one of the most explosive teams in the league.
The Ravens are still decimated on defense - especially in the secondary. They are already missing star cornerbacks Marlon Humphrey (pectoral) and Marcus Peters (knee) and could be without top available corner Anthony Averett (ribs), too. That's particularly discouraging after this group allowed a staggering 525 yards through the air in last week's loss to Cincinnati.
This Rams offense ranks third in yards per attempt (8.0) and has thrown for 8.4 yards per attempt in 11 personnel while running the most plays in the league out of that look. The Ravens are allowing an NFL-worst 8.4 yards per attempt versus 11 personnel and were torched last week by three-receiver looks all game long. Expect Matthew Stafford to have a field day against this beleaguered Baltimore roster.
Pick: Rams -5.5
Lions @ Seahawks (-7.5, 41.5), 4:25 p.m.
It's hard enough to lay the points in a game that, technically speaking, doesn't mean anything for either side. It's even more difficult given how these two teams have played as of late.
The Lions seemed to turn a corner after their Week 9 bye, losing by eight or more points just once in seven games amid a 6-1 ATS run. That includes last week's four-point loss with backup quarterback Tim Boyle, who'll likely start again in place of injured starter Jared Goff (knee). He should be flanked by leading rusher D'Andre Swift - a key addition against a Seahawks defense allowing the most receptions (110) and receiving yards (1000) to opposing running backs.
Conversely, Seattle blew its third double-digit lead last week and has won by eight or more points only three times this season, including just once in the last two months. There simply isn't enough to separate these two clubs in a mostly meaningless affair.
Pick: Lions +7.5
Panthers @ Saints (-6.5, 38), 4:25 p.m.
These two teams have scored 35 points in the last two weeks combined, and each ranks among the five worst teams in total yardage. So while this total profiles as the second-lowest of the season, it's well worth betting this game to fall below this meager number.
The Saints offense has fallen apart in recent weeks, averaging 13 points per game since Week 12 after last week's 20-3 loss in Ian Book's pro debut. New Orleans has gone 5-0 to the under in those contests. While Taysom Hill is back, he'll still likely be without both starting tackles a week after the Dolphins sacked his teammate eight times, the second-most allowed by any team this season.
Meanwhile, the Panthers gave up as many sacks (seven) as they had third-down conversions in last week's 32-6 loss to the Buccaneers, which also marked Carolina's fifth game in its last seven with fewer than 300 total yards. This offense hasn't passed for 300 yards in a single game this season, making it alarmingly one-dimensional against the Saints' No. 1 run defense, per DVOA.
Since 2018, games with a total of 38 or lower have gone 14-9-1 (60.9%) to the under, including 1-0 this year with the Saints' offensive debacle last week. This one won't be quite so ugly, but don't be surprised if the scoreboard isn't much kinder for either offense on Sunday.
Pick: Under 38
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].