Why you shouldn't blindly bet on motivation in final week of NFL season

Entering the final week of the 2020 NFL season, the Dolphins controlled their playoff destiny. With a 10-5 record and tiebreakers in their favor, the Bills - who had already locked up the division title - represented Miami's only hurdle between the team and a rare postseason berth.

In any other week, Buffalo would've been a modest favorite over its division rival. Instead, the money started rolling in on Miami, which had opened as a 4.5-point underdog. By kickoff, the 'Fins had been bet up to 3-point favorites in a must-win spot against a team with nothing at stake.

They lost by 30.

As stunning as that result was, it's hardly an outlier. Since 2011, teams that have needed a Week 17 win to clinch a playoff spot - or to avoid needing help to make the postseason - have gone 13-19-2 against the spread (40.6%). That includes a 7-12-1 ATS run over the past five campaigns and a 1-5 ATS mark in 2020.

In those 10 seasons, at least one team in a must-win spot has lost outright in seven of them, and those that did win often did so by the slimmest of margins. So, is motivation important? And how should you handicap it?

Don't blindly bet on motivation

While the Dolphins' 56-26 defeat is the worst by any team in that spot over the last decade, losses in those spots happen more often than you'd expect. Incredibly, 11 of those 34 teams in a must-win spot lost outright to a team with nothing on the line - virtually identical to the win percentage of all underdogs from any given week (32.4%).

You'll likely remember a few of those games. In 2019, the Steelers (+1) and Raiders (+3.5) both dropped must-win games in Week 17 to fall out of the playoff race. In 2017, the Seahawks and Ravens were both favored by eight points and lost outright to division rivals; Washington (-8.5) did the same a year before.

Some spots are more dangerous than others for teams in potential playoff-clinching situations. Here's how those clubs fared against opponents with nothing at stake, grouped together by the closing line:

The biggest takeaway: be wary of the extremes. While teams favored between 3.5 to 13.5 points held their own - posting a 12-8-1 ATS record and outscoring their opponents by 12.3 points on average - those laying 14 or more were more likely to win by three points than three touchdowns.

The same goes for the narrow favorites, whom the market didn't trust even with major implications - and rightly so. Of the 11 teams to lose outright in a do-or-die situation, seven of them were laying a field goal or less. Three of the four biggest losses in that 10-year span came by teams in that spot, including those dubious Dolphins from a season ago.

Interestingly, it's been a completely different story for teams that have already clinched a playoff spot but are in position to clinch a division title, first-round bye, or home-field advantage. Here's how they fared against teams with zero motivation:

Overall, a 24-19-1 ATS record is just profitable enough over the long run, but there are still some compelling takeaways.

Unlike with playoff hopefuls, favorites of a touchdown or more are worth the price (20-12 ATS, 31-2 straight-up). That makes sense on the surface: big favorites have been cash cows in the NFL for years, and all of these teams are good enough to be in contention for a division crown (or more) even before considering their late-season motivation.

Still, be careful about laying too much on any team in the final week of the season when chaos is at its peak. One of the biggest upsets in NFL history came in Week 17 of 2019 when the Patriots (-17) lost outright to - guess who? - Miami in the final seconds, denying them a first-round bye for the first time in a decade and ultimately spelling the end for Tom Brady in New England. Talk about a costly loss.

Beware the Week 18 spoiler

You've seen the data, but you may still be wondering: How is it possible that teams in season-defining scenarios would perform almost identically to those on a random Sunday in October? Consider that the market has already baked those postseason expectations into the line, often aggressively so knowing the ordinary bettor will blindly bet into it.

Take this week, for instance. Here are the eight teams with extra motivations facing an opponent with nothing at stake, sorted by the current line at theScore Bet:

For the second year in a row, the Colts are 15.5-point favorites over the Jaguars with a playoff berth at stake. (Spoiler alert: They didn't cover in 2020.) It's the most points that Indy has laid all season despite being in "do-or-die" mode for much of the year, while the long-eliminated Jags have been priced as a bigger underdog just once this season.

The Saints are also modest road favorites despite dropping six of their last nine games since losing starting quarterback Jameis Winston for the season. They've already lost once to the Falcons this year as outright favorites (-6) and have won by five or more points in just three of their last 13 trips to Atlanta.

That isn't to say those teams can't take care of business Sunday, but it's worth considering whether you'd bet them otherwise if motivation wasn't at play. And while teams jockeying for positioning have fared better than those fighting for their playoff lives, neither is worth blindly betting in the final week of the season. Just ask the Dolphins.

C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].