Super Bowl LVI opening line: How to approach betting either side

With a 21-10 lead and the ball in their possession inside the Bengals' 5-yard line, the Chiefs seemed set for a third straight trip to the Super Bowl. From that point, the best remaining team in our ratings going into last weekend systematically melted down; the upstart Bengals walked through the open door Patrick Mahomes and the KC coaching staff provided.

It looked as though the 49ers were set to meet them in the Super Bowl, but conservative coaching and a brutal dropped interception saw them squander a 10-point second-half lead to pave the way for the Rams.

And thus Super Bowl LVI features a matchup few predicted. While we're left wondering how both teams managed to punch their ticket, all that matters for bettors is how market perception changed throughout the course of the season.

Here are my ratings for the Bengals and Rams, first published back in Week 5:

No one complained that the Bengals weren't high enough at the time, especially since through five tightly played games Cincinnati was 3-2. The Bengals had hopped the dregs of the NFL but weren't considered a contender.

The Rams had the highest expectations coming into the season and were 4-1 with their shiny new starting quarterback, Matthew Stafford. Soon after, the Rams suffered some high-profile losses and the market soured on them despite winning the ultra-competitive NFC West.

Here are our ratings before the playoffs began:

The Bengals crept up, while the Rams were rated lower than they were earlier in the season.

Bengals vs. Rams (-4, 50)

The line opened at Rams -3.5 with the total at 49.5. The favorite and the over took money almost immediately to push it to -4 and 50, respectively.

The market ratings that had the Bengals settle as 7-point underdogs last week in the AFC Championship Game would suggest this line settling just shy of -4. Something like Bengals +4 (-115) is expected.

My personal ratings we've been using as a guide this season suggest the line should be Rams -2.5 before assigning whatever you think is appropriate for the home-field advantage at SoFi Stadium.

As noted in the chart above, we've been assigning the Rams 1.4 points for home-field advantage this season, and that would get this line to four points in their favor. However, the Super Bowl is different than the regular season, both from a rhythm perspective (with two weeks off between games), and the corporate nature of the fans in the seats. Meanwhile, the Rams were outnumbered in their own house by 49ers' fans, so this is going to have a far more neutral feel than the market may account for.

Joe Burrow and the Bengals have captured hearts this postseason, while the mercenary-laden Rams are the antithesis of a feel-good story for many casual bettors. With the line at -4, and the betting public likely wanting to take the points with Cincinnati, it's worth taking the Bengals sooner than later if you line up on that side. If you bet the Bengals +4 and the line goes to +4.5, you didn't miss out on much value-wise, but if it drops to +3.5 or even +3, you'd be kicking yourself for missing out on +4.

If you're eyeing the Rams, then waiting is the right move. Someone may agree there shouldn't be much home-field advantage baked into this line and support may pour in on Cincinnati in the year's biggest event for casual bettors. At which point you'll be at the ready just in case the line drops between now and Sunday, Feb. 13.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.