Super Bowl betting guide: Making the big game a championship experience

The biggest betting day of the year is still to come on Sunday, Feb. 13.

Our weekly exercise of combing through multiple games in search of spread value, moneyline underdogs, and valuable teaser legs has been completed for the season. You'll have to reintroduce yourself to your family since the Sunday ritual of settling in to watch games with full focus is gone until September.

For Super Bowl Sunday, you'll likely participate in some sort of party or gathering. You'll bet the side and/or total - not because there's value but because it's the Super Bowl - and you'll bet on so many props you'll lose track of half of them somewhere in between the start of the second quarter and your second helping of chicken wings.

Here's a guide to managing your makeshift prop portfolio to best enjoy what is the most social of betting days.

Be ready for a line change

My first piece of general betting advice is this: compare and monitor lines. There are so many numbers for oddsmakers to put up that over the course of two weeks, you can find discrepancies in odds and totals for individual player props, enabling you to shoot for middles. Cam Akers' rushing yards total may open 63.5 on Wednesday, but by Friday the line may be 5 yards higher. That creates a middle opportunity - the chance to bet over 63.5 and under 68.5 - for a small risk with a chance to hit both bets.

Here's my threshold for a decent middle opportunity, by bet type:

This is based on the same pricing on either side. Ideally -110/-110.

Don't contradict yourself

Use your game handicap to bet the props.

Let's say you bet the Rams to win. It would be an uncomfortable watch to bet on more than one Bengals touchdown scorer or to take over props on multiple offensive players on the team.

More specifically, before betting props, ask yourself why you like the side or total in the game. For example, do you like the Rams because you think they'll sack Burrow repeatedly? If so, maybe it's best to focus on sack props, since we know Burrow can be grounded nine times in a game and still win.

If you're going to bet props, don't try to hedge. Say you bet on the Bengals to win but think it's smart to bet some pro-Rams props "just in case." It's not. On top of watching the game in constant conflict, you're most likely going to split the bets and lose the juice.

Don't go overboard

Just cause it's the Super Bowl, it doesn't mean you need to bet your whole bankroll. Budget your betting as you would for any other game, or at least stay as close to it as possible. If you usually bet a side and prop for a game, take the amount of money you'd wager on those two bets and consider that your budget.

Don't be afraid of an under

It's the Super Bowl, which means there's more recreational money in the marketplace than in any other game of the year. What do recreational bettors want to see? Excitement.

Overs are a very popular bet with few exceptions, and the sportsbooks know that. Their best Super Bowls are the ones where nothing happens. On top of that, with two weeks to prepare, the coaching staffs get extensive time to game plan for the opponents' top threats and their overall tendencies.

That convergence of factors means there's almost always value on betting a Super Bowl prop under. As an added element, teams often start slow on the grandest stage, so when betting an over, you may be at a disadvantage by the time the first quarter is complete.

Don't rush your bets

Whether it's the favorite on the moneyline, or a player prop, patience is often the best practice. Super Bowl bettors who like the Rams will take them against the spread. Bengals bettors will bet the moneyline. This should lead to an advantageous price on the moneyline for the Rams. Look for that to find its way shorter than -175 by kickoff.

Meanwhile, sportsbooks will release 100-plus prop markets, and while sharp bettors will be ready to pounce, that doesn't mean you've missed out on a good bet. In fact, it may create one, as overcorrection may occur. Hypothetically, if Sony Michel's rushing yards open at 37.5 and gets bet up to 46.5, while over 37.5 is a sharp bet, under 46.5 might be an opportunity to step in.

Unless you're lined up at the big market-making sportsbooks in Las Vegas, you're not going to get the best possible price anyway, so it's better to try to play on potential overcorrection.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.