Super Bowl LVI: Why you need to bet on the opening kickoff

This year's postseason has been defined by big kicks. Five of the last six playoff contests have ended with a game-winning kick, and the starting kickers in Super Bowl LIV - Matt Gay and Evan McPherson - are two of the best in the league.

It's rather ironic, then, that neither kicker is likely to boot it out of the back of the end zone on the opening kickoff - which could give savvy prop bettors a massive return before the game's first play from scrimmage.

One of the most overlooked prop bets ahead of each Super Bowl is whether the opening kickoff will result in a touchback. This year, "yes" is the favorite at -167 at Barstool Sportsbook, which makes sense given that roughly 60% of the Rams' and Bengals' kickoffs this year have resulted in touchbacks.

A cursory look at past Super Bowls tells a wildly different story, though, and spells tremendous value for anyone betting "no" (+134) on an early touchback. Here are the results of the opening kickoff of every title game since 1994:

A whopping 26 of 28 Super Bowls since 1994 have not featured a touchback on the opening kickoff. That's a 92.9% hit rate. It doesn't take a mathematician to realize that "no" at plus money is a screaming value, especially with each of the last four Super Bowls opening with a kick return.

That trend comes despite a bevy of recent rule changes intended to improve player safety - primarily by increasing the likelihood of touchbacks.

History of kickoff rule changes

In 1994, the NFL introduced a series of rule changes to increase scoring and counter a dramatic increase in field-goal attempts. One of those changes involved moving the kickoff spot from the 35-yard line to the 30-yard line, which saw the league's touchback percentage plummet from 23.3% in 1993 to a mere 7% the following season.

Over the next 17 years, just 11.3% of all kickoffs resulted in touchbacks. The effect is clear in the Super Bowl data, too: from 1994 to 2010, every single title game opened with a kickoff return. Then, in 2011, the league reversed course and moved kickoffs back to the 35-yard line to reduce concussions sustained on returns.

The rule was effective at reducing injuries, and it drastically increased the regularity of touchbacks. In 2012, 43.5% of all kickoffs resulted in touchbacks; in 2016, the NFL moved touchbacks to the 25-yard line in a series of rule changes that led to a record touchback percentage (61.2%) last season.

But none of that has mattered in the Super Bowl. Since the kickoff moved to the 35-yard line in 2011, just two opening kickoffs have resulted in touchbacks - even as sportsbooks continue to deal "yes" as the overwhelming favorite.

It's all about the ball

What's the reason for this unbelievable trend in the big game? There's a simple explanation: the ball.

Kickers are usually able to break in the specialized "K-Ball" - a harder and slicker ball that the league introduced in 1999 - ahead of the opening kickoff, which helps soften the football and make it easier to boot 75 yards down the field.

That isn't the case in the Super Bowl. According to former All-Pro specialist Pat McAfee - who booted the opening kickoff for the Colts in Super Bowl XLI - the ball used in title games isn't handled until the opening kickoff, and it's kicked just once before being removed and preserved for the Hall of Fame.

McAfee's opening boot in 2010 was one of 49 opening kickoffs that were returned in the 55-year history of the Super Bowl. Only two kickers - Justin Tucker (2013) and Matt Bosher (2017) - have managed a touchback since the 2011 rule changes, and both of those kicks happened in a dome.

Will the trend continue?

So, given all they're up against, will either kicker in this year's Super Bowl join that exclusive touchback club in the open air of SoFi Stadium?

Don't count on it. Gay led the league in kickoffs (102) during the regular season but ranked 33rd in average kickoff distance (61.9 yards) among 46 players with at least 10 tries. The Rams kicker also ranks 15th in touchback percentage (63.7%), sitting only slightly higher than McPherson (60.4%).

Consider, too, that Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker boasted the league's fifth-highest touchback rate (75.8%) a year ago with an average kickoff distance of 63.4 yards. Here's how that turned out for him in Super Bowl LV:

The Rams and Bengals returned 47.9% and 43.9% of all kickoffs during the regular season, respectively, which would suggest a value of roughly +125 even before accounting for the ball used in the title game. So, even in a postseason full of big kicks, it's unlikely we'll see one on the Super Bowl's opening kickoff.

C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].