Super Bowl LVI scoring props: Don't expect long TDs or field goals

Unless Sean McVay and his Rams perform offensively like they did the last time they were in the Super Bowl, there will be scoring on Sunday. How much is debatable, but I'd like to think it will be more than in the 13-3 loss to the Patriots that we all suffered through three years ago.

However many points we get, and whichever side you're on, there are plenty of individual bets or prop pool picks to sink your teeth into. Here's where I'm leaning on a handful of scoring props.

Longest TD: Under 42.5 yards (-112)

This bet doesn't mean there won't be a big play. It just means that if there is, it won't be a touchdown. I'm ruling out the rare special teams and long defensive scores. If there is a defensive TD, it will be due to the pressure of Matthew Stafford or Joe Burrow taking snaps with their back to their own goal line.

The Bengals have shown a willingness to play their safeties very deep this postseason in an attempt to not get beat. Plus, much has been made about the state of Stafford's arm strength. For as great as Cooper Kupp is, his breakaway speed doesn't lend itself to creating long touchdowns over the top.

The Rams are hoping to have Taylor Rapp back so that Eric Weddle - signed less than a month ago - won't have to play 100% of the defensive snaps. Ja'Marr Chase makes the big plays for the Bengals' offense, but his biggest plays have come from fending off a defender for contested balls, as he's had just two catches for more than 32 yards since Week 7. Meanwhile, Tee Higgins only has three receptions of over 42 yards all season.

Longest field goal: Under 47.5 yards (-115)

We've previously discussed why Evan McPherson kicking the longer field goal between him and Matt Gay is a good bet, so this might feel contradictory. However, as an individual bet, McPherson's success this season has sent this total too high. Meanwhile, the rationale regarding Gay remains the same, as I don't expect him to be asked to kick a field goal of 48 yards or more. With McPherson the main kicker to worry about, and his opportunity not guaranteed, I'll take my chances with this bet.

1st TD total yards: Over 7.5 (-112)

I don't think there'll be a long touchdown where someone breaks away from the defense and goes the distance, but I do believe both teams and their quarterbacks are quite capable of finding their top targets in the end zone from 8 yards or further.

Stafford has Kupp or Odell Beckham Jr. running crisp routes, while Burrow has a cadre of big targets. Both offenses should find success in the mid-range game once they approach the red zone, with the Rams having a decent chance of breaking a run from 10-plus yards out against the Bengals' struggling run defense. Joe Mixon has shown he's capable of doing the same.

Successful 2-point conversion: Yes (+265)

This usually isn't a valuable bet, but I think there will be a number of stalled drives between the 10-yard and 30-yard lines. If we get early field goals then that creates a scoring scenario where a 2-point conversion becomes mathematically mandatory late. (If the game is played a touchdown at a time, where the margin is seven or 10, we're less likely to see a team attempt a 2-point conversion.)

The second element is that the conversion needs to be made. We saw the Bengals draw up a perfect 2-point play in the AFC championship. The Rams have Kupp's ability in goal-line offense and a few tricks in their playbook, so the chances that these offenses convert are greater than the standard 50/50 proposition.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.