NFL offseason betting schedule: Opportunities are closer than you think
If nothing else, the two weeks between the conference championships and Super Bowl allows for football-mad bettors to ween themselves off of the ritualistic handicapping of games that makes the days between September and January fly.
You might have finally calculated how all of your Super Bowl bets did days after the Rams defeated the Bengals for their first NFL championship in Los Angeles. Was it a 2-point conversion or a missed PAT? How many yards did Matthew Stafford actually rush for? Who sang first: Snoop or Dre?!
Don't be fooled by the end of the season, though. The bets must go on. Here's a look at the next six months and what we can look forward to for our NFL betting fix.
QB carousel
Teams can start negotiating with free agents on March 14, but we all know the positioning begins before then.
PLAYER | CURRENT TEAM | ACTION REQUIRED |
---|---|---|
Jimmy Garoppolo | 49ers | Release |
Aaron Rodgers | Packers | Forced trade |
Ryan Tannehill | Titans | Trade |
Carson Wentz | Colts | Bench |
Kyler Murray | Cardinals | Trade |
Jalen Hurts | Eagles | Bench |
Baker Mayfield | Browns | Release/Trade |
Russell Wilson | Seahawks | Forced trade |
Deshaun Watson | Texans | Trade |
Teams like the Broncos, Buccaneers, Colts, Saints, Steelers, Commanders, Panthers, and Texans have holes of various sizes at the quarterback position. Would you be stunned if any of the signal-callers above were either replaced or found their way to one of these teams?
We discussed what should go into any speculative futures bets earlier this week, but it's a good idea to memorize the futures prices on the quarterback shopping teams. In doing so, you can act quickly at the first sign of a substantiated rumor and buy a squad like the 2020 Bucs and 2021 Rams before they get their game-changing pivot.
NFL Draft
This is the big one. Right now, there's not much more out there than the standard "Who will be drafted No. 1 overall?" market. We were way ahead of that one a month ago, as we jumped on Evan Neal at 10-1. There's no guarantee he'll go first, but Neal's flown up the board, past Kayvon Thibodeaux, and is sitting just behind Aidan Hutchinson in the +200 range.
It remains to be seen whether the No. 1 pick will have some suspense to it, but that won't affect the numerous other markets that will slowly populate sportsbooks between now and the weeks leading up to the draft:
- Offensive and defensive first-round totals
- Over/under draft position
- Player to be drafted first matchups
- Positional props
- College team props
With the NFL Scouting Combine held in early March, player evaluation and the rumor mill will soon get fully cranking, giving us over six weeks to sift through the subterfuge.
Schedule release
Win totals and other futures
The NFL has shifted toward releasing the next season's schedule post-draft. While there's no date set for the schedule release just yet, we can expect it to come in the middle of May. Soon after, sportsbooks will release regular-season win totals, and other futures will become more widely available with increased limits.
Week 1 and season-long lookahead lines
With a new schedule also comes the first point spreads. Many sportsbooks will open lookahead point spreads for every game in the NFL season, with the exception often being the campaign's final week. The limits on these bets are often quite low. However, there will be opportunities to buy low on teams you expect to be better than the market gives them credit for, especially if they have a midseason matchup with a club you think will underachieve.
Preseason
Lastly, before you know it, the Hall of Fame Game will kick off in early August, and we'll be back to start our season-long cycle all over again. Preseason games provide occasional opportunities with coaches who have a history of either wanting to win the meaningless games or having no interest in victory at all. Information gathering is key in August, as you can beat the market to a better price in a more significant way than you can in the regular season.
While it may feel like football is more than six months away, a new NFL betting market - and thus, an opportunity - can pop up at any moment.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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