Fantasy: Analysis and projections from 1st day of free agency

Find positional rankings, additional analysis, and subscribe to push notifications in the NFL Fantasy News section.

Recent fantasy articles

• Fantasy free-agent index

With legal tampering underway, several players have already made their intentions known by agreeing to deals with new teams.

Let's take a look at all the notable skill-position signings so far - and what they'll mean for fantasy managers.

Big moves

Jaguars sign WR Christian Kirk, TE Evan Engram

Kirk's contract: 4 years, $72 million
Engram's contract: 1 year, $9 million

The Jaguars were aggressive right out of the gate in free agency and signed a flurry of players. The new contracts included five-time All-Pro guard Brandon Scherff, defensive tackle Foley Fatukasi, linebacker Foye Oluokun, and a pair of new offensive playmakers in Kirk and Engram.

The size of Kirk's deal suggests Jacksonville has major plans for him in its offense and hopes he can be one of Trevor Lawrence's favorite targets for the foreseeable future.

That's a bit of a projection for the former second-rounder, who flashed many times in Arizona but is far from an established star. The 25-year-old topped 750 yards for the first time last season, delivering a 77-catch, 982-yard, five-touchdown campaign aided by DeAndre Hopkins' seven-game absence.

Regardless, Kirk should rise to the top of the Jags' depth chart ahead of 32-year-old Marvin Jones and the so-far underachieving Laviska Shenault.

If Lawrence takes a step forward under the new coaching staff, Kirk will have a chance to return WR2 numbers in fantasy. However, until we see more positive signs from Jacksonville's young QB, you'd be wise to temper your expectations and treat Kirk as a WR3 with upside.

Engram's deal was a fully guaranteed one-year pact that gives him a shot to prove himself outside of the Giants. The fresh start is much needed for the 27-year-old tight end, who just turned in the worst season of his NFL career with 408 yards and three touchdowns.

He remains one of the most athletic players at his position and can be a force if deployed properly in the passing game. Lawrence seemed to like throwing to his tight ends as a rookie. His group of journeymen - which included Dan Arnold, James O'Shaughnessy, and Jacob Hollister - combined for a 37.5% target share.

It doesn't take much to sneak into the low-end TE1 ranks, and Engram will be pushing to be mentioned in that conversation for 2022.

Kirk's 2022 projection (17 games): 72 receptions, 934 receiving yards, 4 TDs
Engram's 2022 projection (15 games): 48 receptions, 521 receiving yards, 3 TDs

Steelers sign QB Mitch Trubisky

Contract: 2 years

Mitch Trubisky's story could go in a lot of directions now that he's found a new home in Pittsburgh. But whether it's an epic tale of redemption or an embarrassing comedy of errors remains to be seen.

After failing to live up to expectations as the Bears' second-overall pick in 2017, Trubisky spent the fifth year of his career sitting and learning behind Josh Allen in Buffalo.

The one-season stint as a backup in the Bills' organization successfully rehabbed his image and made him a coveted free agent.

Mike Tomlin and the Steelers will now ask him to replace the departing Ben Roethlisberger, who was a shell of his former self by the time he retired in January.

That should make the transition easier for Trubisky, especially with the skill position talent he'll have at his side - including Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, Najee Harris, and Pat Freiermuth.

The 27-year-old passer also showed an ability to augment his stats with his legs, which fantasy managers hope he can bring with him at his next stop. Trubisky's best fantasy finish came in 2018 when he rushed for 421 yards and three touchdowns on the ground, making him the QB11 in points per game.

Still, it's hard to view Trubisky as anything more than an average QB2 and bye-week replacement for fantasy purposes. His greatest contribution will be keeping the stars around him producing - something he should be capable of now that he's in a better setting than he was during his first opportunity as an NFL starter.

Trubisky's 2022 projection (17 games): 3,649 passing yards, 21 TDs, 12 INTs
36 carries, 214 rushing yards, 1 TD, 3 FL

Dolphins sign RB Chase Edmonds

Contract: 2 years, $12.6 million

Miami was one of the most coveted landing spots for a running back this offseason, with new head coach Mike McDaniel bringing his version of the Shanahan run scheme to South Beach.

Edmonds, who'll turn 26 in April, has yet to prove himself as a full-time starter in the league, but the Dolphins' front office clearly believes he's up for the challenge.

While he's not the biggest back at 5'10" and 210 lbs, we've seen several smaller ball carriers excel in the Shanahan system - most recently Elijah Mitchell (5'10, 200 lbs), Raheem Mostert (5'10, 205 lbs), and Matt Breida (5'10, 195 lbs).

There's a strong possibility the team drafts RB depth in the form of a power runner who can help with short-yardage and goal-line situations, but Edmonds is in a position to lead this backfield in touches. His pass-catching skills alone make him an intriguing fantasy option after catching 96 passes over the last two campaigns with the Cardinals.

Miami still has work to do to improve its offensive line, but you can confidently select Edmonds as a top-20 fantasy back for 2022.

Edmonds' 2022 projection (15 games): 187 carries, 917 rushing yards, 5 TDs
46 receptions, 332 receiving yards, 2 TDs

Cardinals keep RB James Conner

Contract: 3 years, $21 million

Returning to Arizona was likely going to be Conner's best chance at fantasy success, and the Cardinals wasted no time making that happen.

The veteran spent most of his first year in the desert splitting time with Edmonds and serving as a goal-line weapon. However, we received a glimpse of Conner's true ceiling when Edmonds remained sidelined for five weeks in the second half of the season.

Conner totaled 572 yards from scrimmage, 24 receptions, and seven touchdowns from Week 9 to Week 14. He averaged 25.8 fantasy points per contest during that stretch - second only to Jonathan Taylor.

While we probably won't see Conner operate at those highs for an entire campaign, it's impossible to deny his upside in Arizona's offense. Even if Eno Benjamin takes over some version of the Edmonds' role, Conner is a strong RB2 with the potential to finish as an RB1 if he can remain healthy.

You should also keep Benjamin high on your list of late-round stashes in case Conner struggles to stay off the trainer's table - a problem that plagued him when he was Pittsburgh's lead back.

Conner's 2022 projection (15 games): 226 carries, 962 rushing yards, 10 TDs
46 receptions, 395 receiving yards, 2 TDs

Minor moves

Jets sign TE C.J. Uzomah, keep RB Tevin Coleman, WR Braxton Berrios

While this isn't the same kind of splurge the Jaguars made to surround their sophomore QB with talent, all three of these moves should help Zach Wilson.

Uzomah represents a quality upgrade at tight end for the Jets. However, if last year was any indication, there likely won't be enough targets headed his way to make him a weekly fantasy option.

Coleman and Berrios will return to their roles as depth pieces who would need an injury or two to occur before they warrant consideration in your lineup.

Dolphins sign WR Cedrick Wilson, QB Teddy Bridgewater

After impressing as an injury fill-in for the Cowboys last year, Wilson was someone capable of making a serious leap forward if he landed in the right offense. Unfortunately for him, Miami isn't that spot.

Targets will already be hard to come by in an offense featuring Jaylen Waddle, DeVante Parker, and Mike Gesicki. Wilson will be an overqualified third receiver again, but it'll be in a weaker passing attack this time.

Meanwhile, Bridgewater is the perfect steady veteran to have on the sidelines and in the quarterback room, helping Tua Tagovailoa develop as a pro. He can also keep the offense afloat if Tagovailoa struggles or gets hurt.

Colts keep TE Mo Alie-Cox

The annual hype train proclaiming Alie-Cox as the next great fantasy tight end will be chugging along this summer unless the reports are accurate that the Colts are looking at other free agents at the position.

Sophomore Kylen Granson could also complicate matters.

You should avoid this situation until we see how the depth chart shakes out over the next few months.

Seahawks keep TE Will Dissly

Injuries have limited Dissly's performance through four seasons and may have changed his career trajectory.

With Noah Fant joining the roster, Dissly will settle in as a depth option with little to no fantasy value.

Cardinals keep QB Colt McCoy

McCoy did everything the Cardinals could have asked when Kyler Murray missed time last season, including throwing for 328 yards and two scores in a win over the Seahawks in November.

Even if Murray is sidelined again, McCoy won't be someone worth considering in fantasy. He's an excellent backup for Arizona, though.

Jaguars sign WR Zay Jones

Jones was a very sporadic producer in a Raiders offense that was desperate for playmakers at receiver. With his 27th birthday approaching, it's safe to say a breakout isn't coming.

He'll be a fine depth piece in Jacksonville, but there's a reason he didn't get mentioned with the Jags' big-name signings at the top of this list.

Giants sign WR Robert Foster

We usually wouldn't mention an addition like Foster since he's likely headed for a special teams role or back to the free-agent market.

However, Giants general manager Joe Schoen and head coach Brian Daboll are familiar with Foster from their time together in the Bills' organization.

The young receiver hit the 100-yard mark three times over his final seven games of 2018, resulting in WR2 fantasy numbers during the second half of the season. The odds of him recapturing that magic again are nearly nonexistent but not impossible.

Titans keep TE Geoff Swaim

Swaim has been well off the fantasy radar as a 28-year-old tight end who's only had a couple of games with increased production.

It's worth noting that Swaim's coming off a career year in targets (40), catches (31), and touchdowns (three). But injuries to other pass-catchers played a part in his inflated numbers.

Swaim becoming a weekly fantasy option remains a long shot, but his role could continue to grow if the Titans don't re-sign Anthony Firkser or MyCole Pruitt in free agency.