Fantasy: Winners and losers from the Tyreek Hill trade

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In an absolutely stunning move, the Kansas City Chiefs traded star wideout Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins on Wednesday in exchange for a bundle of picks.

Let's take a look at the biggest fantasy winners and losers on both teams.

Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes

Just as we outlined when the Packers dealt Davante Adams to Las Vegas, it's never a positive when a quarterback loses an elite receiver. Even a superstar like Mahomes takes a hit in this situation.

However, we shouldn't rush to judgment because the Chiefs' roster is still a work in progress. With the salary cap space and extra picks gained in the Hill trade, Kansas City has an opportunity to add more weapons for Mahomes.

While every free-agent wideout still on the market has his issues, bringing in a veteran like Odell Beckham Jr., Will Fuller, Jarvis Landry, or Julio Jones would make sense for Kansas City. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who could replace some of Hill's speed on the outside, was reportedly in town for a visit Wednesday.

It also seems likely that the team uses one of its four selections in the opening two rounds to take at least one receiver prospect.

With Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Mecole Hardman already in house, the Chiefs have a decent corps to build around, but they need to be aggressive in order to avoid falling behind in the current AFC arms race.

Even without Hill, Mahomes remains a top-five fantasy option at the position, though the gap between him and my top overall QB, Josh Allen, has now widened.

Mahomes, who has never finished a season lower than QB6 in fantasy points per game, should be viewed in line with the next tier of quarterbacks, including Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, and Kyler Murray. Fantasy verdict: loser

JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman

With Hill and Kelce soaking up huge target shares in recent years, there hasn't been much room for a third receiving threat to emerge.

That's about to change with Hill out of the picture.

Smith-Schuster has been unable to recapture the impressive form he displayed in his first two seasons when he posted stat lines of 58-917-7 and 111-1,426-7 while playing second fiddle behind Antonio Brown in Pittsburgh.

Injuries have taken away some of JuJu's explosiveness and may have prevented him from developing into a true No. 1 wideout, but he can still be a quality high-volume slot receiver.

Meanwhile, fantasy managers have been waiting for Hardman to break out ever since he entered the league.

The speedster was drafted to eventually replace Hill, but despite some splash games at times, he rarely stepped up when given increased opportunities.

At 24 years old and entering his fourth NFL campaign, Hardman is coming off a career-high 59-catch, 693-yard effort in 2021. He remains a long shot to become a focal point of Andy Reid's offense.

Their true fantasy outlooks will depend on the other moves the Chiefs have planned, but at the moment, JuJu should be viewed as a WR3 with a chance to catch a ton of passes and Hardman a boom-or-bust WR5 with a massive ceiling and a scary floor. Fantasy verdict: winners

Travis Kelce

Fortunately for Mahomes and the Chiefs, they still have the league's best tight end and someone who can be the de facto top receiver if needed.

Kelce continues to sit on the fantasy tight end throne with six consecutive seasons of over 1,000 yards and four straight seasons with over 90 receptions. That kind of consistency is unheard of at the position.

However, it's worth noting that his numbers did dip a bit last season as Mark Andrews edged him out to finish as the TE1 overall. It can't be overlooked that Kelce turns 33 later this year and could be starting his decline phase.

Even so, tight ends of his caliber tend to age gracefully and remain productive well into their 30s.

Odds favor another monster campaign as Kelce takes over as the unquestioned leader among the Chiefs' pass-catchers. He should be the first tight end selected in all fantasy drafts. Fantasy verdict: value unchanged

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Let's put a pin in the Kansas City backfield until we know who will be joining Edwards-Helaire on the depth chart.

At the moment, Derrick Gore is his immediate backup, but the team found success at different points last season with veterans Darrel Williams and Jerick McKinnon who are both still looking for a home in free agency.

There were also reports that free agent Ronald Jones was visiting the club Wednesday. Jones may have some faults as a pass-catcher, but he can be an explosive runner in the right offense. The Chiefs would be an intriguing landing spot for him.

It's still possible Edwards-Helaire restores his value with a good season, but from what we've seen so far, he wasn't worth the first-round pick used to select him. He's outside my top 24 fantasy backs right now and in the high-end RB3 range.

Hill's departure could reduce the number of scoring opportunities for the Chiefs' ball carriers, but there'll still be plenty of positive game scripts playing alongside Mahomes. Fantasy verdict: value unchanged for now

Dolphins

Tyreek Hill

Hill is a major acquisition for the Dolphins' offense, which is hoping to make the leap in 2022.

His arrival in Miami gives new head coach Mike McDaniel an outstanding cast of skill-position talent to work with and will help Tua Tagovailoa in his evolution to becoming a franchise quarterback.

The only problem is that Hill is leaving one of the best situations in football where he was catching passes from Mahomes and routinely finishing among the top 10 target leaders.

His target totals are all but guaranteed to decline with the Dolphins, where he'll be in a lower-volume passing attack with tougher target competition.

However, it's not all doom and gloom for the 28-year-old, who should continue to deliver low-end WR1 numbers for fantasy if Tua can hold up his end of the bargain. Fantasy verdict: loser

Tua Tagovailoa

The fantasy community was quick to turn on Tagovailoa while he struggled during the second half of his rookie season.

Perhaps that has to do with the immediate success we've seen from other rookies recently, like Joe Burrow or Justin Herbert, the latter of whom was drafted one spot behind him in 2020.

But some passers take time to acclimate to the NFL, and Tua is about to show he has the ability to play at a much higher level than we've seen from him so far.

With the upgrades on the offensive line (including stud left tackle Terron Armstead), the backfield (Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert), and now at receiver, Tagovailoa is finally surrounded by a capable crew that can elevate his stats.

He'll never be a Mahomes-level QB, but Tua has excelled as a deep ball passer and Hill will only help to unlock that even more.

With the most complete arsenal he's had in his young NFL career, Tua should be viewed as a high-end fantasy QB2. Sadly, it'll be hard for him to move much higher in the rankings due to the abundance of premier fantasy quarterbacks in the top 12. Fantasy verdict: big winner

Jaylen Waddle

Hill's presence puts a damper on Waddle's fantasy ascension.

Last year's first-round pick is fresh off a rookie campaign where he caught 104 passes for 1,015 yards and six touchdowns. More importantly, he averaged 8.8 targets per game - 14th best in the league.

He was poised to flirt with WR1 fantasy results after finishing as the WR16 overall in fantasy points per game last season.

With Hill around, Waddle won't be able to replicate his target totals and will need to make up for it with more explosive plays downfield and more trips to the end zone.

It's possible that happens or that Hill spends time on the sidelines, allowing Waddle to step back into the No. 1 role, but for now, he falls to the low-end fantasy WR2 range with a ceiling that's capped for the foreseeable future. Fantasy verdict: loser

DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki, Cedrick Wilson

It's hard to paint a positive outlook for Parker, Gesicki, and Wilson since they're all about to drop one spot down the pecking order in Miami.

Parker's job security is in question after the team also added Wilson in free agency. If he sticks around, Parker will be a WR6 at best and would require an injury to Hill or Waddle to become worthy of fantasy consideration. Let's hope he ends up elsewhere to give him a more realistic path to production.

Gesicki is one of the better pass-catching tight ends out there and really should be listed as a receiver. But his stats have been erratic, with his most prolific performances coming when other receivers have been hurt. With all the new sets of hands joining the team over the last two years, Gesicki is going to struggle to maintain reliable volume.

Wilson is probably disappointed by the Hill trade, considering he signed with the club last week and likely assumed he'd get a shot to be one of the top three wideouts. He may still get that opportunity if the team moves on from Parker. Either way, Wilson is well off the fantasy radar. Fantasy verdict: big losers

Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert

Hill will provide a slight boon to the backfield by making the offense more dangerous, drawing attention away from the line of scrimmage and leading to more scoring opportunities.

The outlook for Edmonds and Mostert remains the same as it was when they signed with the Dolphins last week.

Mostert has an early-season edge due to his familiarity with Shanahan's scheme.

History tells us he won't hold up to a regular workload, so an injury seems all but inevitable for the veteran who turns 30 in April.

Edmonds has the ability to excel as the lead back, and his pass-catching profile makes him enticing for fantasy.

Treat them both as RB3 options in fantasy, with Edmonds having more long-term RB2 upside. Mostert is the type of pick who could help you get off to a strong start, but his health isn't something you want to rely on later in the season. If forced to choose, Edmonds is the back you should target in drafts. Fantasy Verdict: small winners