Best bets to draft QBs Malik Willis, Kenny Pickett
Last year, the fates of the top two quarterbacks were decided well before commissioner Roger Goodell got anywhere near the podium on draft night, with Trevor Lawrence predetermined to go to the Jaguars first overall and Zach Wilson pegged to go to the Jets at No. 2.
This year, intrigue around the quarterback position exists because few teams seem to be enthralled by Malik Willis or Kenny Pickett. Perhaps fewer feel compelled to use a first-round pick at the position. This creates an unusual amount of uncertainty.
Team to draft Malik Willis
TEAM | ODDS |
---|---|
Panthers | +250 |
Lions | +350 |
Steelers | +350 |
Seahawks | +350 |
Falcons | +350 |
Saints | +900 |
Giants | +1200 |
Texans | +1600 |
Eagles | +2000 |
Commanders | +2500 |
Colts | +2500 |
Titans | +2500 |
Cowboys | +2500 |
Buccaneers | +3000 |
Ravens | +4000 |
Vikings | +4000 |
Cardinals | +4000 |
49ers | +5000 |
Packers | +5000 |
Bears | +6000 |
Jaguars | +6500 |
*All other teams listed at 100-1
If the Panthers could trade the No. 6 pick, they would probably do it in a heartbeat, especially given their reported interest in Baker Mayfield. Getting the signal-caller for cheap and trading down from the sixth slot for multiple picks would be ideal.
The Falcons (No. 8) and Seahawks (No. 9) have replaceable quarterbacks on their rosters, which is why they are each +350 to take Willis. This means a team looking to trade up for the former Liberty star should be on the phone with Carolina. So when it comes to where Willis gets picked, I would make that slot the favorite. However, the question here is: Who picks him there?
Saints +900
Willis isn't necessarily a Week 1 starter, so the modest commitment to Jameis Winston shouldn't dissuade the Saints from making a big move. There's a reason New Orleans added a second first-round selection in the eight-pick swap with the Eagles. The Saints allowed Philadelphia to stay in front of them in the middle of the round, which won't be as big a deal for New Orleans if the club planned to package the picks to move up for Willis.
The Saints won't want to show their cards, so this move won't be made before the draft. It's the type of deal that would need to be done after the fifth pick is made. At 9-1, we'd bet this on the idea that there's better than a 10% chance of it happening.
Buccaneers +3000
Here's a fun long shot. The Buccaneers got a quick glimpse of the quarterback room after Tom Brady's brief retirement. If the Panthers get Mayfield, they can then deal the No. 6 pick for the Buccaneers' 27th overall selection and a series of other picks to fill holes. Tampa Bay's roster will be stacked regardless, so why not just grab someone to learn from the GOAT?
Team to draft Kenny Pickett
TEAM | ODDS |
---|---|
Panthers | +150 |
Saints | +200 |
Steelers | +350 |
Seahawks | +500 |
Falcons | +500 |
Titans | +1500 |
Lions | +2000 |
Commanders | +2500 |
Eagles | +3000 |
Texans | +3500 |
Colts | +4000 |
Vikings | +5000 |
Giants | +5500 |
*All other teams listed at 100-1
Seahawks +500
The further the underwhelming Pickett falls, the greater the number of teams that come into play for the former Pitt QB. The Steelers sit at 20th overall, so other teams may need to hop in front of his local club to get him. One year younger than Sam Darnold, the Panthers may view Pickett as more of the same.
Next up would be Seahawks. Yes, they need everything. But in the waning years of his coaching career, Pete Carroll can't be resting his hopes on Drew Lock.
Lions +2000
Where teams sit in the draft order directly affects the odds of them picking one of Willis or Pickett over the other. For example, the Lions are the second favorite to select Willis because they own the second overall pick but are 20-1 to take Pickett since he would have to be taken closer to the Lions' 32nd overall choice.
However, the fact that the Lions have the No. 34 pick as well is key. Packaging the No. 32 and No. 34 picks to move up to grab a falling Pickett makes a ton of sense after they've already grabbed a star lineman at second overall.
Eagles +3000
It's worth a small wager that, should he fall to one of their mid-round selections, the Eagles add Pickett to their quarterback room. It's possible they're not as thrilled with Jalen Hurts as many are in the fantasy football realm.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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