NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds: Catch a rising star
The draft came and went last weekend, and all the top prospects found new homes with NFL offenses. While every team believes they've chosen the perfect fit, that's obviously not always the case.
When it comes to the Rookie of the Year Award and its betting market, oddsmakers have weighed in on how successful they think these players will be with their new clubs.
Offensive rookie of the year odds
| PLAYER | POSITION | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | QB | +500 |
| Drake London | WR | +650 |
| Breece Hall | RB | +700 |
| Chris Olave | WR | +800 |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | +800 |
| Treylon Burks | WR | +900 |
| Christian Watson | WR | +900 |
| Kenneth Walker | RB | +1000 |
| Skyy Moore | WR | +1200 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | +1300 |
| James Cook | RB | +1300 |
| Desmond Ridder | QB | +1600 |
| Matt Corral | QB | +2000 |
| Jahan Dotson | WR | +2000 |
| Malik Willis | QB | +2500 |
| George Pickens | WR | +3300 |
| Sam Howell | QB | +5000 |
| John Metchie | WR | +6000 |
| Trey McBride | TE | +6600 |
| Isaiah Spiller | RB | +8000 |
| Ikem Ekwonu | OT | +15000 |
| Evan Neal | OT | +15000 |
| Charles Cross | OT | +20000 |
Of course, it's not just about who'll flourish the most - the trio of offensive linemen selected in the top 10 sits very far down on the list, which is pretty telling.
Opportunity is the bigger variable for winning this award. Quarterbacks have populated the top of this board for many years, but this season, Kenny Pickett has the only real chance of starting early on. While even that seems optimistic, it's still enough for him to open as the favorite.
Normally, we'd like to see how each player looks in training camp and the preseason. However, last year, more than a few bettors were thrown off when Ja'Marr Chase struggled to adjust to pro football's pro football:
Ja'Marr Chase: NFL ball is harder to catch than NCAA ball, harder to see without white stripes. https://t.co/DktbexjFPp
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) September 9, 2021
It took an absurd Justin Herbert campaign to keep Justin Jefferson away from this award in 2020. With no such season likely to come from a signal-caller this year and no running back or tight end likely to have a peak impact, wide receivers have to be the target for a bet in this market.
Best bet
Jameson Williams (+1300)
There are six options at wideout priced shorter than arguably the most talented player drafted at the position. That's because the others are either entering awesome ready-made offenses and/or are already the most talented option on the team.
Williams doesn't have the quarterback that the others do, but Jared Goff is at least capable of getting the ball to weapons. Otherwise, what were we all doing drafting Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Brandin Cooks in fantasy football all those years?
If Amon-Ra St. Brown can catch 90+ balls on the Lions despite starting fewer than half the team's games, then Williams can do the same. In fact, St. Brown's presence underneath a secondary allows Williams to make the most out of his catches deeper down the field. A team expected to trail more often than not will have plenty of opportunities to throw the ball, and Williams will be there to catch.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.