2022 Cleveland Browns betting preview

Our offseason refresher on the betting outlook for each of the NFL's 32 teams concludes with the Cleveland Browns.

Deshaun Watson's legal troubles after being accused of sexual harassment and assault by 24 massage therapists - 20 of the suits have been settled - and the NFL's slow movement on what feels like an inevitable suspension makes any assessment of Cleveland's season difficult. Rumors suggest a suspension of anywhere from a couple of games to an entire season.

The Browns are absent from the season win total market as a result, but bets can be placed on them to win the division, conference, and Super Bowl.

2022 Season odds

All of the Browns' futures odds were shorter before it became clear Jacoby Brissett will be starting at quarterback for some portion of the season - their division odds were shorter than +200. Things have changed. At this point, a bet on the Browns begins with an absolute guess on how much time Watson will miss.

Schedule outlook

The move from the Browns as 4.5-point favorites down to a pick'em in their Week 1 showdown with their former quarterback, Baker Mayfield, is a clear indication Watson won't be available against the Panthers. As for the remaining schedule, sportsbooks are largely deploying the shoulder shrug emoji. We have to do the same when it comes to breaking down our SWOT analysis despite our respect for a defense that allowed the second-fewest yards per play in 2021.

Instead, we'll use this space to identify what the difference might be for the Browns, and their opponents, when Watson is the quarterback versus when Brissett is taking the snaps.

Watson vs. Brissett

When Mayfield was out last year, Case Keenum took over. As a result, there were opportunities to bet on the Browns because the downgrade from a banged-up Baker - to a Case of the replacement-level quarterback - was overadjusted in the market.

We've seen enough of Brissett to know he's a notable downgrade from Watson. However, the Browns are capable of winning via their run game and/or an opportunistic defense led by Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney.

The difference between Watson and Brissett isn't as simple as assigning 4-4.5 points like the market did when Mayfield was traded. There are two reasons why: 1. Mayfield was the probable starter for Cleveland in that game, so that measurement is from him down to Brissett; 2. The line accounts for the upgrade from Sam Darnold to Mayfield.

So, how do we figure out what to do when the suspension is announced?

We use power ratings as a starting point with the limited market knowledge we have.

We know the Brissett Browns are rated slightly better than the Panthers since they're nearly a pick'em on the road at Carolina. A quick look at the Panthers' schedule with projected point spreads shows that in their division games, the point spread shifts by two points in home/road matchups against the Buccaneers and Saints, as well as three against the Falcons. This likely means oddsmakers have assigned a 1-1.5 point home-field advantage for Carolina.

With a total of only six in season win markets, Carolina's power rating is around 35/100 in the market. In a pick'em game with one point of home-field advantage, Brissett's Browns have to be considered around 38/100.

Now, let's look at what the rating for the Watson Browns would be.

We know they should be good, but how good? We can do slightly better than guessing since we know they were lined as equals to the Bengals and Ravens in the divisional odds markets early in the offseason.

Cincinnati and Baltimore have a median win expectation of 10, which translates to a 58/100 power rating. The Browns appear on those teams' schedules in Week 7 and Week 8, respectively. That means Cleveland's win total probabilities only change if Watson is given a suspension of more than six games.

Back to Week 1: Whether it's Watson's Browns, the Bengals, or the Ravens, a visiting team in Carolina, with an approximate rating of 58, would be 5.5-point favorites. Since the Browns are lined near pick'em, it stands to reason that a point spread will change by around 5.5 points. That's a moneyline change from -120 to -230 and an implied win probability change of 15%.

*Note: With key numbers like -3, -6, and -7 carrying larger values in football betting, this 5.5-point number can shorten depending on how many key numbers a point spread adjustment crosses.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.