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NFL MVP odds: Jackson, Hurts among biggest risers as season nears

Mitchell Leff / Getty Images Sport / Getty

A lot has happened since we broke down the opening odds of who will win the 2022 NFL MVP award back in February. The receiver market exploded and precipitated a flurry of moves for star wideouts; the greatest player of all time retired, then promptly unretired weeks later; and the bidding war for one maligned star sparked a QB carousel across the league.

We've seen the effects of all of that in the MVP market. In some cases, it propelled former long shots into the contender circle with just two months to go before the season starts. Here are the updated NFL MVP odds at Barstool Sportsbook as of Monday, as well as three players who have seen the biggest climbs since February:

PLAYER ODDS
Josh Allen +600
Patrick Mahomes +800
Tom Brady +800
Aaron Rodgers +1000
Joe Burrow +1100
Justin Herbert +1100
Dak Prescott +1500
Matthew Stafford +1500
Russell Wilson +1500
Lamar Jackson +1800
Kyler Murray +1800
Derek Carr +2500
Deshaun Watson +3000
Jalen Hurts +3300
Trey Lance +4000
Kirk Cousins +5000
Derrick Henry +5000
Cooper Kupp +5000
Matt Ryan +5000
Deebo Samuel +5000
Tua Tagovailoa +5000
Jonathan Taylor +5000
Jameis Winston +5000
Trevor Lawrence +6000
Christian McCaffrey +6600
Ryan Tannehill +6600
Carson Wentz +6600
Mac Jones +7000
Baker Mayfield +7500
Nick Chubb +10000
Dalvin Cook +10000
Aaron Donald +10000
Austin Ekeler +10000
Justin Fields +10000
Jmmy Garoppolo +10000
Najee Harris +10000
Taysom Hill +10000
Daniel Jones +10000
CeeDee Lamb +10000
Elijah Mitchell +10000
Micah Parsons +10000
Cordarrelle Patterson +10000
TJ Watt +10000
Zach Wilson +10000
Davante Adams +12500
Justin Jefferson +12500
Alvin Kamara +12500
Cam Akers +15000
Saquon Barkley +15000
Nick Bosa +15000
Teddy Bridgewater +15000
Ja'Marr Chase +15000
Sam Darnold +15000
Stefon Diggs +15000
Ezekiel Elliott +15000
Jared Goff +15000
Damien Harris +15000
Tyreek Hill +15000
Travis Kelce +15000
George Kittle +15000
Davis Mills +15000
Joe Mixon +15000
Kenny Pickett +15000
Miles Sanders +15000
Michael Thomas +15000
Javonte Williams +15000
Chase Young +15000
Drew Lock +15000
Marcus Mariota +15000
Mitchell Trubisky +15000
James Conner +20000
Amari Cooper +20000
A.J. Dillon +20000
David Montgomery +20000
Keenan Allen +25000
A.J. Brown +25000
J.K. Dobbins +25000
Mike Evans +25000
Terry McLaurin +25000
D.K. Metcalf +25000
D.J. Moore +25000
D'Andre Swift +25000
Chase Claypool +50000
Clyde Edwards-Helaire +50000
Travis Etienne +50000
Diontae Johnson +50000
Darnell Mooney +50000
Kyle Pitts +50000
James Robinson +50000
Laviska Shenault +50000
DeVonta Smith +50000
Courtland Sutton +50000
Jaylen Waddle +50000
Darren Waller +50000
Malik Willis +50000
Jerry Jeudy +100000

Tom Brady, QB, Buccaneers (+800)

Going from retirement to the starting quarterback of the NFC favorites is a surefire way to boost your MVP stock. That's been the timeline for Brady, who was the runner-up in last year's race and already has three MVP trophies on his mantle.

Even at age 44, he seemed impervious to the effects of aging, tossing a career-high 5,316 yards along with 43 touchdowns for the Buccaneers in 2021 - both of which led the league. He also finished second in QBR (68.1) behind MVP winner Aaron Rodgers (69.1) and was the MVP favorite until the season's final few weeks.

There's little reason to doubt that he can do it again at age 45, especially if star wideout Chris Godwin is ready for Week 1. This number has tightened over the summer and could be even shorter by the first week of the season.

Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens (+1800)

We're just three years removed from Jackson's electric MVP season in 2019, when he threw for 3,127 yards and 36 touchdowns while adding a ridiculous 1,206 yards and seven scores on the ground. Yet it feels like he's the forgotten man in this loaded MVP race.

The betting market is starting to catch up, playing this number down from 25-1 at open to its current price of 18-1. It certainly doesn't hurt that Jackson is mired in a contract dispute with the Ravens, which seems to have motivated him if his recent social media activity is any indication.

He won't have top target Marquise Brown at his disposal this year, but the Baltimore QB appears to be in the best shape of his career following an injury-plagued 2021 campaign, which could be driving some of the hype in the MVP market. With free agency looming for Jackson, this could be another breakout season for the dual-threat superstar.

Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles (+3300)

Nobody has seen their stock rise more than Hurts. He was dealing as a 50-1 long shot in February but has seen his price slashed to 33-1 as of Monday. At this rate, I'd be stunned if it doesn't reach 25-1 by Week 1.

That's how much smoke there is around the Eagles quarterback, who is among the most bet players to win MVP at various shops around the market ahead of his third season and second as a full-time starter. Some of that is because of the growth expected from the former Alabama star. But this entire Philly offense should also make strides in Year 2 under head coach Nick Sirianni - especially after adding former Titans receiver A.J. Brown in April.

The downside is obvious. Hurts owns a 9-10 record as a starter with a career 59% completion rate, but we've previously seen "project" QBs net massive rewards for bettors. Jackson shook off concerns about his arm en route to an MVP season in 2019, and current favorite Josh Allen nearly did the same as a 66-1 long shot in 2020. Don't be surprised to see bettors continue to bank on a similar trajectory for Hurts.

C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].

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