NFL Coach of the Year betting: Low expectations, high results

Last year's NFL Coach of the Year situation was an outlier. As strange as it sounds, Mike Vrabel needed an injury to his most important player to win the award. Derrick Henry missed much of the season, but the Titans kept winning, and Vrabel got the credit not just for keeping things from falling apart, but for leading Tennessee to the top seed in the AFC.

While that circumstance was impossible to predict before the season, it does illuminate the core question for handicapping this market: Who gets the credit for a surprisingly good campaign?

The Titans' 12-win season in 2021 would have been surprising even with a healthy Henry, but at least it would have been easier to explain. The Coach of the Year award often goes to the head coach whose team surpasses its win total by a significant margin without one player serving as the obvious root of that success.

Coach of the Year odds

While I'm a proponent of Staley's - or any coach who makes in-game decisions based on things other than gut feelings or existing precedent - it's probably a year too late for his candidacy. With the Chargers facing high expectations for the season and Justin Herbert poised to take much of the credit for any success, Staley shouldn't be favored here.

Of course, to bet on a coach in this market, one has to believe in that coach's team. Brian Daboll would get all the credit for a high-end Giants season, which is why he's the second choice here. But I don't have enough faith in New York to play him at relatively short odds, especially when there are more tantalizing options.

Best bets

Kevin O'Connell (+1500)

Most alert NFL viewers would assign a significant amount of blame to Mike Zimmer for the Minnesota Vikings' lack of recent success. So if the team replaces him and then has a big season, significantly surpassing its win total of nine with minimal personnel changes elsewhere, shouldn't the replacement get the credit?

Kevin O'Connell is near the top of the board because the answer to that question is, "Yeah, probably." Unlike the Giants or other teams with coaches in O'Connell's odds echelon, I believe in the Vikings this season. O'Connell will go down swinging with Kirk Cousins running a forward-thinking offense alongside a defense that should be much improved, making this market one of the best ways to play Minnesota success.

Bill Belichick (+2500)

Maybe you've heard of him. Always a threat for this award, the head coaching GOAT has positioned himself particularly well heading into this season, publicly taking responsibility for a potentially revamped offensive scheme away from Matt Patricia and Joe Judge. There's been something of a defensive talent exodus from New England, complicating Belichick's quest to do what he always does: make the Patriots far more competitive than they're expected to be.

Mike Tomlin (+3000)

Everyone loves Mike Tomlin, so why wouldn't voters? Ben Roethlisberger's exit means the credit for any Steelers success will go straight to the head coach. As far as believing in Pittsburgh - especially with either Mitch Trubisky or rookie Kenny Pickett under center - that's where the long odds come in. But it's easier to trust Tomlin to make something out of nothing than it is most other coaches.

Matt Rhule (+5000)

We can't ignore a coach at the bottom of the oddsboard who has a legitimate chance at winning. The Panthers were our choice as the long shot to make the playoffs this season, but we'd understand if you eschewed that bet for taking a shot on Rhule instead. The only issue: A playoff berth for Carolina would likely require a high-credit, Offensive Player of the Year-caliber season from Christian McCaffrey and a Comeback Player of the Year-caliber season from Baker Mayfield. A potential nine-win team can only garner so many awards, but at 50-1, this one isn't out of the question.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.