NFL futures: Best bets to make, miss playoffs
As we approach the season's kickoff on Sept. 8, it's time to examine a macro-market that reflects every team's core goal: to make the playoffs. Barring unforeseeable practice injuries and suspensions, NFL teams are what they are from a personnel standpoint. To help define value, we'll look at three bets on either side: a favorite in the market, a team with less than a 50% chance, and a long shot (+350 or longer).
Make/Miss NFL playoffs odds
| TEAM | MAKE | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | +120 | -150 |
| Atlanta Falcons | +800 | -1400 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -170 | +135 |
| Buffalo Bills | -600 | +400 |
| Carolina Panthers | +400 | -600 |
| Chicago Bears | +400 | -600 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | -150 | +120 |
| Cleveland Browns | +170 | -220 |
| Dallas Cowboys | -240 | +180 |
| Denver Broncos | -150 | +120 |
| Detroit Lions | +400 | -600 |
| Green Bay Packers | -450 | +300 |
| Houston Texans | +1500 | -4000 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -175 | +140 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +450 | -700 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -230 | +180 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +170 | -220 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | -160 | +130 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -280 | +210 |
| Miami Dolphins | +140 | -170 |
| Minnesota Vikings | -120 | -110 |
| New England Patriots | +160 | -210 |
| New Orleans Saints | +115 | -145 |
| New York Giants | +220 | -300 |
| New York Jets | +800 | -1400 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -175 | +135 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +320 | -450 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -210 | +160 |
| Seattle Seahawks | +475 | -800 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -550 | +380 |
| Tennessee Titans | +105 | -135 |
| Washington Commanders | +150 | -200 |
Best bet: To make the playoffs
Favorite: Colts (-175)
If we're going to pay the juice for a team to make the playoffs, we want to back a clear-cut favorite to win its division. The Colts are -125 to take the AFC South, which is an implied win probability of 55.6%. At -175 (63.6% win probability) to make the playoffs, it's assumed that if the Colts can't top the Titans, Jaguars, and Texans, then they probably aren't good enough to earn a wild-card berth, either. That's not an unfair assessment, but with such a short disparity between the two prices, it's worth having the wild-card backup plan to win this bet.
Underdog: Browns (+170)
With the Browns looking likely to play 11 games with Jacoby Brissett at the helm, the market has cratered on their prospects this season. But Cleveland's roster is good enough - and the early schedule is soft enough - that the team could be hovering around .500 when Deshaun Watson returns with six games left; a 10-win season isn't out of the question, and as competitive as the AFC is, a 10-7 record was good enough to make the playoffs last year. At a significant plus-money price, a bet on the Browns being in the mix come Week 18 is a shot worth taking.
Long shot: Panthers (+400)
Speaking of the Browns, a healthy Baker Mayfield was good enough to lead Cleveland to the playoffs just two seasons ago. For the Panthers, a healthy Christian McCaffrey would radically change an offense that has missed him for much of the last two seasons - two seasons in which Carolina also battled below-average quarterback play.
We'll presume that existing trends will continue this year in the shallow NFC, where some surprising teams have earned playoff berths with nine wins or fewer in recent years. The Panthers can finish second in the NFC South, at which point they'd likely be competing with the non-division winners in the NFC East and NFC North for two of the three wild-card berths. At 4-1, Carolina's upside is worth gambling on.
Best bet: To miss the playoffs
Favorite: Cardinals (-150)
The NFC wild-card math alluded to above assumes only two NFC West teams make the playoffs this season after the division had three postseason clubs a year ago. The Cardinals are the odd team out this year, as we pick up where the second half of last season left off: fading Kliff Kingsbury.
The Cardinals gave themselves a 7-0 head start in 2021, but without DeAndre Hopkins for the first six games of this campaign, Kyler Murray and the offense won't have the same success converting third downs or drawing pass interference penalties to extend drives. The -150 price assumes a 60% win probability; we have Arizona closer to a 66% chance of missing this year's playoffs.
Underdog: Cowboys (+180)
The Cowboys received a significant blow last week when Tyron Smith suffered a potentially season-ending injury. Any Smith absence has historically led to a significant drop in the Cowboys' offensive efficiency, and Dallas did little to add depth to an offensive line that already suffered some key losses. Amid concerns about the defense's ability to create as many turnovers - and return touchdowns - as it did last season, this year's roster may be grossly overvalued. At +180, this is the best way to fade Dallas in 2022.
Long shot: Bills (+400)
By definition, we have to pick a really good team to miss the playoffs here, and that's far more likely to happen in the AFC. Just choose seven teams from the conference that are likely to make the playoffs, then consider the clubs that didn't make that list. A good team will miss out. If the Dolphins or Patriots can steal the division, the Bills' schedule is tough enough to make 11 wins a difficult target. A 10-win campaign might result in a wild-card tiebreaker, at which point it would be nice to hold a +400 ticket on Buffalo.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.