NFL win-total betting: 7 looks at who will and won't thrive in 2022

Let's get an important caveat out of the way: These numbers have been picked over for longer and more aggressively than any other season-long NFL betting market. Sharp bettors, and those that consider themselves such, will tell you that because of the liquidity here, there's no longer value to any bet.

While that may be true, in the context of competition for the best prices and closing-line value, it's still worth looking at what teams might exceed, or fall short of, their preseason expectations.

NFL win-total odds

The parity that the NFL hopes for is evident from the top teams needing just 12 wins to go over their total, while the worst teams are still expected to win four-to-five games.

Best bets

Bills under 11.5 wins (+110)

If you want to get nuts fading the Bills, I like the alternative total of under 10.5 (+200). Buffalo could be awesome this year, but if last year's soft schedule actually created misleading metrics, then the Bills could have some issues against a much better slate of opposing offenses. A 10-7 record could keep the Bills in the playoff picture but would cash a 2-1 ticket on the alternative under.

Bengals over 9.5 wins (-135)

Although many want to treat the Bengals' breakout season last year as a fluke, Cincinnati went out of its way to fix its main issues this offseason, particularly the offensive line. We've got a ticket on Joe Burrow to lead the league in passing yards, and there's enough room between a 10-win season and what it might take to win the AFC North that I'd rather back the Bengals here than in the divisional markets.

Cowboys under 10 wins (-110)

Several things spell trouble on both sides of the ball for the Cowboys, including defensive turnover regression that'll directly impact their overall scoring, an expected drop in offensive efficiency without Amari Cooper, departed interior linemen, and left tackle Tyron Smith's injury. They're also spending too much money on their starting running back and not enough intellectual effort on their coaching hires. The other three teams in the NFC East have varying degrees of hope, which should amount to fewer wins for Dallas before even looking outside the division.

Texans over 4.5 wins (-115)

It's taken me two months to come to terms with it, but I like the Texans this year. I believe offensive line play is the key to success in pro football, and Houston's rebuilt unit will run-block for Dameon Pierce and pass-protect for Davis Mills. Maybe the defense isn't ready for a leap, but I'm here for a five-win season with even more point-spread covers as an underdog in a losing cause.

Vikings over 9 wins (-130)

Include me in the long line of bettors who have talked themselves into the Kevin O'Connell era. Kirk Cousins and the offense won't need their usual list of excuses, and the defense will improve. A Week 1 win over the Packers will go a long way to settle this bet on our side.

Saints over 8.5 wins (-115)

New Orleans trading C.J. Gardner-Johnson aligns with our assertion that the Saints are sneaky deep on defense. I may be the last man on Earth who believes in Jameis Winston, but all I'm asking for is a 9-8 season from a veteran team that could be good on both sides of the ball.

Seahawks under 5.5 wins (+130)

A plus-money price to fade Pete Carroll and the slow dissolution of the Seahawks? Sure!

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.