NFL division betting: Pass or play in the NFC?
It's officially Week 1 of the NFL season, and we've covered a lot of ground on the various futures markets for the coming year. We pointed out a handful of win totals to bet on, even though that market was picked over during the summer. The same can be said for the divisional championship markets (find the AFC here). With just four teams to choose from, we'll add a column to the oddsboard - including the implied win probability (IWP) that the odds suggest.
Using the context of the market's expectation for each team after months of available betting at relatively high limits, let's break down how each division's odds were worked into place, and whether we want to pass on them or make a play.
NFC West
| TEAM | ODDS | IWP |
|---|---|---|
| Rams | +125 | 44.% |
| 49ers | +160 | 38.5% |
| Cardinals | +375 | 21.1% |
| Seahawks | +2000 | 4.8% |
Much has been made of Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury's good early-season record versus how his teams finish the year, but that can be misleading. At Texas Tech, he could pump up his record with a soft non-conference slate before deflating in the Big 12. In Arizona, Kyler Murray is vulnerable to punishment from NFL defenses, and this season, he won't have DeAndre Hopkins to help him bank early wins.
That leaves two teams with a legitimate chance to take the division. I have both the Rams and 49ers at closer to 50-50. Since San Francisco provides better odds, with an implied win probability percentage further away from 50%, the Niners are worth a wager at anything better than +150.
Pick: 49ers (+160)
NFC South
| TEAM | ODDS | IWP |
|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | -230 | 69.7% |
| Saints | +300 | 25% |
| Panthers | +800 | 11.1% |
| Falcons | +1800 | 5.3% |
Even though I'm looking to fade the Buccanneers, I can't decide which other team I'd want to bet on based on their price. If there's a market for Tampa Bay to not win the division, the "No" would likely be priced around +170. The Bucs' alternative win total of under 10.5 is available at +150, and that's the much safer route; they could win 10 games and still take the NFC South if none of the Saints, Panthers, or Falcons surprise.
At one point, the Falcons were 25-1 to win the division, so someone thought that far-fetched idea was priced too long. We already have a stake in the Panthers surprising via a bet in the Coach of the Year market.
The Saints won the division two seasons ago with a less talented roster than this one and Drew Brees exhibiting very little arm strength. Now they've got Jameis Winston under center and a defense-oriented new head coach in Dennis Allen. I'll need to see a game or two to make sure Winston and Michael Thomas are healthy before buying stock in New Orleans, so we'll pass for now.
Pick: Pass
NFC North
| TEAM | ODDS | IWP |
|---|---|---|
| Packers | -165 | 62.3% |
| Vikings | +225 | 30.8% |
| Lions | +900 | 10% |
| Bears | +1400 | 6.7% |
"Motor City Dan" Campbell has many bettors ready to run through a wall for the Lions after his star turn on "Hard Knocks." However, the interest in a big turnaround season in Detroit is already reflected in its 9-1 odds, which should probably be something like 15-1. So which team did the Lions take 3-4% of the division's IWP from?
The hand-wringing about the Packers' offense after Davante Adams' departure is probably excessive, but the potentially revitalized Vikings are just too interesting to pass up. Although Aaron Rodgers might find himself with less weight on his shoulders thanks to a strong running game and good defense, the NFL remains an offense-first league. Usually, that means regular-season success for the Packers, but their games could be tighter this season, and the odds don't reflect that. We have to back Minnesota at this long of a price.
Pick: Vikings (+225)
NFC East
| TEAM | ODDS | IWP |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | +140 | 41.7% |
| Eagles | +150 | 40% |
| Commanders | +500 | 16.7% |
| Giants | +700 | 12.5% |
The last calendar year has taken the Cowboys from close to a coin flip to nearly a co-favorite. Should we play back on that move and back Dallas?
I'll pass, since I think the longer odds are warranted. The Commanders and Giants haven't done much to generate interest, so Philadelphia took the implied win probability from Dallas. While the Eagles' loaded roster has their bettors excited, Jalen Hurts needs to show me he can be trusted. The same goes for Carson Wentz and Daniel Jones, and their supporting casts aren't nearly as exciting.
Pick: Pass
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.