NFL futures: Best value bets to make the Super Bowl

There's a difference between betting and real life. It's easy to predict a Bills and Buccaneers Super Bowl matchup, but the NFL is far too unpredictable to expect the two conference favorites to exhibit value throughout the season.

Also, if you bet on a team to win the Super Bowl in real life, you'll invariably be sitting there wondering what to do with that ticket for two weeks before the big game in Glendale. Should you hedge? For how much? Do you even have an honest opinion about the game that's not influenced by a ticket you've held for some time?

Giving back much of the expected value and equity is almost impossible to avoid, so instead of betting into the Super Bowl markets, we'll look at the level below the "Big Game" and focus on teams in each conference that are worth a bet to make Super Bowl LVII. That way, you can already have cashed a ticket, making the halftime show that much more enjoyable.

Super Bowl LVII odds

The AFC West has three top choices in its conference championship market, which tells you that none have value - the other two could topple the three before they even get to the playoffs.

As for the NFC, the four choices atop the odds board could end up not even having a home game in the first round of the NFL Playoffs, and since the primary goal for a conference championship bet is to take a shot on a team who could earn a surprise first-round bye, we'll look elsewhere.

Best bets to win the AFC Championship

Ravens (+1000)

It won't be easy to get the AFC playoff bye coming out of the AFC North, but even if the Ravens don't get the Wild Card round off, they'll be postseason-ready with a style of play that can work in various conditions on the road as well as home.

With almost the entire roster returning from missing significant time - including MVP candidate Lamar Jackson - and an injection of talent from the draft, we can go back to trusting John Harbaugh and his staff to get the most out of the Ravens if they can stay healthy.

Colts (+1200)

If the Colts can win their division the way they're expected to, it becomes a matter of stacking up wins in a soft AFC South while watching the other three divisions cannibalize themselves. The winner of the North, West, and potentially the AFC East may all end up being better teams than the Colts, but if Indianapolis has the best regular-season record, it won't be that surprising - especially since that scenario happened last year with the Titans.

Getting a first-round bye and a home game against the lowest remaining seed from Wild Card Weekend translates on average to a -200 price on the 1-seed hosting the conference title game. Taking a shot at 12-1 for an odds-on division favorite is worth tying up some money for the campaign.

Best bets to win the NFC Championship

Vikings (+1600)

From a narrative standpoint, backing a team that hasn't been to the Super Bowl since the age of the "Purple People Eaters" doesn't come off as a sound investment decision, but we would have said the same thing had we listed the Bengals in this article before last season. In sports betting, past performance does not predict future results.

Fundamentally, the Vikings need to switch places in the standings with the Packers to grab a first-round bye. How do they accrue five more wins than last year? Turning around numerous catastrophic losses in 2021 would be a start. A Dalvin Cook fumble cost them a win in Cincinnati, they scored seven points at home against the Browns in a one-score loss, they lost at home to a Cooper Rush game-winning drive, and they suffered walk-off losses to the Cardinals, Ravens, and Lions.

An offense-first approach, competent in-game coaching, and better luck could have turned an eight-win season into something closer to Green Bay's 13-5 record. If Minnesota can win the NFC North, the team could top the conference as a whole come playoff time.

Saints (+1600)

Along the same logic, if the Saints can win the NFC South - as they did just two years ago - it means they have a better record than what's expected from the division favorite. Tampa Bay has struggled against New Orleans in four straight meetings. Another Saints sweep, only without the injury issues from the rest of last season, would immediately make them contenders for the NFC's 1-seed.

With some mystery remaining around Michael Thomas and Jameis Winston being out-of-sight for so long, we don't really know what the ceiling is for a team with a defense boasting a front and secondary that could be considered strengths. Concern about Dennis Allen's takeover stems from his previous head coaching stints in a far sketchier circumstance. The Saints are going for big things this season, and at 16-1 with everything coming together, they're worth a shot.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.