TNF player props: Bills and Rams on 'Must See TV'
There was once a time when live-streaming involved a hike in your local forest, we could still find joy in nature without it landing on the 'gram, and NBC had its "Must See TV" lineup. These days live-streaming describes the NFL's new partnership with Amazon for its Thursday night package, with an exception: NBC retains two highly-valued properties, Week 1 and Thanksgiving night.
Last season we rock-and-rolled our way to the Super Bowl with our music-themed Thursday night player props, joyfully celebrating the start of a new NFL week. This year we'll use an episode from "Must See TV" cornerstone "Seinfeld" each week to remind us that betting is supposed to be fun, even during the times when an absurd series of events leads to a losing bet.
"The Pilot"
The debut episode, known at the time as "The Seinfeld Chronicles," had the same outline for what the series eventually became but not the same look, with makeshift sets. The Bills might feel like they were 13 seconds away from a good chance to make the Super Bowl, but they'll settle for a season-opening matchup that doesn't feel like the Big Game despite having the same location and similar excitement. And like Elaine, the Bengals are missing from this episode.
With a 52-point betting total, offense should be plentiful. If Josh Allen was doing laundry, Jerry would point at Buffalo's multi-faceted MVP favorite and say, "Look at this guy. He's got detergents, sprays, fabric softeners ... this is not his first load."
Before even accounting for designed runs, the pilot of the Bills' offense may also find himself flushed out of the pocket due to pressure from Aaron Donald. If "the washing machine is the nightclub for clothes," the middle of the line is Donald's personal dance floor, forcing Allen to break containment frequently and scoot for extra yardage. As Jerry told George, "you can't over-die, you can't over-dry," but you can "over" Allen's rush yards.
Pick: Josh Allen over 35.5 rushing yards (-110)
A TD that's definitely going to happen
Seinfeld's first episode started the same way the series finished, with a conversation about the placement of the second button on George's shirt. Like most episodes in between, it wasn't the focus of either episode but a call-back for astute fans.
Those who've followed the NFL for a while know that Allen Robinson was considered the best receiver who had no help from his quarterbacks in Jacksonville and Chicago. The Rams' Matthew Stafford started last season with touchdowns to Van Jefferson and Robert Woods and kicked off their Super Bowl scoring with a pass to Odell Beckham. None of them are playing on Thursday night. With defensive attention given to Cooper Kupp, Robinson finds the end zone in his Rams' debut.
Pick: Allen Robinson anytime touchdown (+150)
A TD that probably won't happen ... but maybe it does
"It's signals, Jerry! It's signals!" George tells Jerry as they're trying to determine the interest level of the first of many ladies that will pass through their lives throughout the series. Part of finding long-shot value in the prop market is processing how lineup information might influence the usage of other players in a given game. Thursday's signal is Jefferson's absence, which opens up the third wideout spot in the Rams' frequent three-receiver sets. Ben Skowronek was the player Stafford turned to on shot plays down the field at times last season, and his size makes him a compelling target in the red zone.
Pick: Ben Skowronek anytime touchdown (+380)
How to bet: The first two bets should be single unit wagers - to win a unit on minus prices and more than a unit on a plus-money bet. The last wager should be smaller, trying to win back your standard unit size.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.