NFL Week 1 teasers: Let key numbers guide the way early
There's a right way and a wrong way to tease NFL games. Using six-point teasers in the proper situation can be valuable. It's why the industry has seen the price for a two-team/six-point tease go from -110 to -120 over the last decade-plus. Sharp bettors had used the teasers to alter the point spread to gain win probability that outraced the -270 price for shifting the line six points. They managed to do that by moving the point spread across key winning margin numbers like three, six, and seven.
Some games don't have a teaser-worthy point spread. For example, the Dolphins are 3.5-point favorites at home to the Patriots. Teasing Miami would see the spread go through zero, which is wasting valuable price points around the improbable chance of a tie. Teasing New England up to +9.5 accomplishes getting the key numbers around a touchdown, but you're already winning on a three-point margin at a -110 price. Getting those numbers over a long sample size isn't worth the price hike.
Let's use the opening night matchup between the Bills and 2.5-point underdog Rams as an example of how teasing a game can be valuable.
| ALT. SPREAD | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Rams +3.5 | -145 |
| Rams +4.5 | -165 |
| Rams +5.5 | -185 |
| Rams +6.5 | -205 |
| Rams +7.5 | -255 |
| Rams +8.5 | -300 |
You can see how the pricing significantly jumps once you move across the key numbers three, seven, and eight. But more importantly, Rams +8.5 is priced at -300, which is obviously a worse price than our teaser leg at -270.
To get a good deal on Rams +8.5, we must pair them with something else and win both to cash the ticket. Fortunately, we can choose that other leg from our weekly "teaser basket" using what we know about key numbers.
Teaser basket
Let's look at the mathematically optimal plays available for Week 1:
| TEAM | SPREAD | TEASER LEG |
|---|---|---|
| Rams | +2.5 | +8.5 |
| Ravens | -7 | -1 |
| Bengals | -6.5 | -0.5 |
| Browns | +2 | +8 |
| Colts | -7 | -1 |
| 49ers | -7 | -1 |
| Jaguars | +2.5 | +8.5 |
| Vikings | +1.5 | +7.5 |
| Cowboys | +2.5 | +8.5 |
| Broncos | -6.5 | -0.5 |
In the chart above, you can see there are essentially two types of teaser legs: those that drop a touchdown favorite to where they basically just need to win or those that can provide us with one side getting over a touchdown in a game lined as something of a coin flip.
Road favorites can be a dangerous play, and Week 1 provides a handful with the Ravens, Colts, 49ers, and Broncos. Given that each of those teams has an implied win probability of around 75%, it's hard to imagine that all four of those survive. Tread lightly with the concept of a squad that "just needs to win," even with mathematical value on each.
I'm starting my week with a Rams +8.5 teaser leg and pairing it with a selection of the teams above. The Browns, Jaguars, Vikings, and Cowboys are all expected to play in highly competitive games, with the first two going up against teams with offenses that likely won't blow anyone out.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.