NFL Week 2 teasers: Crossing key numbers is a 2-way street

There's a theory that you should never tease in Week 1 because there's so much uncertainty for a bet that relies on an accurate point spread. On Sunday, the final scores were just over nine points off of their closing point spreads on average. As a result, the six-point teasers in Week 1 were unsuccessful due in large part to upsets by the Steelers, Bears, Giants, and Seahawks, as well as a tie by the Texans. In order to make your -270 teaser legs valuable, you need to win 75% of the time.

Some games don't have a teaser-worthy point spread. For example, the Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites at home to the Chargers on Thursday. Teasing Kansas City would see the spread go through zero, which is wasting valuable price points around the improbable chance of a tie. Teasing Los Angeles up to +9.5 would get the key numbers to around a touchdown, but you're already winning on a 3-point margin at a -110 price. Getting those numbers over a long sample size isn't worth the price hike.

Let's use the 7.5-point spread in Bengals-Cowboys - the game with the biggest shift in its projected line - as an example of how teasing a contest can be valuable.

You can see how the pricing significantly jumps once you move across the key number of 3 - showing the importance of capturing that number in NFL betting. But more importantly, the Bengals' alternative spread (-1.5) is priced at -325, which is obviously a much larger price to pay than getting CIN -1.5 with our teaser leg at -270.

To get a good deal on the Bengals (-1.5), we must pair them with something else and win both to cash the ticket. Fortunately, we can choose that other leg from our weekly "teaser basket" using what we know about key numbers.

Teaser basket

Let's look at the mathematically optimal plays available for Week 2:

Unlike last week, there are four games that have point spreads hovering around double digits. Since we can't tease those teams under a field goal, they're not worth moving. The Browns and Raiders are 6-point favorites, but a teaser down to pick'em creates a moneyline bet at -270. That's a worse price than the -240 or -250 that's widely available on those teams' moneylines.

What's left is two-way traffic that moves the line across -3, -6, -7, and -8. The Commanders, Steelers, Panthers, and Vikings should expect to be in close games, so taking those teams to stay within a score is valuable. Meanwhile, the aforementioned Bengals can be taken down under a field goal.

With totals in the low 40s, the Steelers as home underdogs and the Panthers on the road against the potentially overvalued Giants are probably the safest bets. They can be paired in games unlikely to have big margins.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.