NFL Week 2 survivor pick: It's now or never for the Browns
Fifty-six percent.
In Week 1, roughly 56% of survivor pool competitors were knocked out. We knew that week's slate was going to be a problem. All we could do was hope for the best.
Our "Path A" pick - the Ravens - helped us survive, but the 49ers brought an early end to "Path B." With one entry moving on, we still have to play strategically to last through 18 weeks.
Every week until we get knocked out, we'll map our remaining path to make it to the end of the season. As long as we have an entry standing, we'll use the moneylines for our picks to show the odds of making it the distance. Once we're out, though, we're out.
While we could provide a series of theoretical rules to follow - like "never take a road team" - a club's likelihood of winning each game is reflected in its moneyline. We can easily translate that into an implied win probability, listed in descending order in the chart below.
Week 2 moneylines
| GAME | MONEYLINE | IWP |
|---|---|---|
| Rams (vs. ATL) | -600 | 85.7% |
| Broncos (vs. HOU) | -550 | 84.6% |
| Packers (vs. CHI) | -500 | 83.3% |
| Bills (vs. TEN) | -500 | 83.3% |
| 49ers (vs. SEA) | -425 | 81% |
| Bengals (vs. DAL) | -350 | 77.8% |
| Browns (vs. NYJ) | -300 | 75% |
| Raiders (vs. ARI) | -220 | 68.8% |
| Chiefs (vs. LAC) | -200 | 66.7% |
| Ravens (vs. MIA) | -190 | 65.5% |
| Colts (@ JAX) | -190 | 65.5% |
| Buccaneers (vs. NO) | -145 | 59.2% |
| Eagles (vs. MIN) | -135 | 57.4% |
| Patriots (vs. PIT) | -130 | 56.5% |
| Giants (vs. CAR) | -125 | 55.6% |
| Lions (vs. WSH) | -120 | 54.5% |
Many underdogs won outright in Week 1, which might suggest there aren't as many bad teams as we've had the last few years. That's terrifying for survivor players. Four of the five biggest underdogs above won last week, and the fourth was favored by almost a touchdown. Parity is fun, but it's also scary.
Survivor Path
| WEEK | USED | MONEYLINE | BET |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ravens | -300 | +.33 |
We didn't fear the Ravens on the road because their environment wasn't as daunting as the other big traveling favorites. The 49ers had to deal with peak Soldier Field sloppiness, while the Broncos and Russell Wilson had to play in the Seahawks' personal Super Bowl. At -300, you could've thrown a unit down on Baltimore and had 1.33 units to roll over on our Week 2 pick.
With so many double-digit favorites on the board, this week's pick may be controversial, but it shines a light on our strategy.
To make it to the end of the season, you'll have to rely on 18 teams. At some point, whether it's in Week 17 or Week 2, you need to use the NFL's 18th-best team.
This week's question: Are the Cleveland Browns a top-18 club?
If you trust 18 teams more than Cleveland, go ahead and select another team. But if the Browns are in your top 18, now is the time to use them. A home game against the Jets is the best matchup they'll have all season, even with Deshaun Watson returning for a road contest against the Texans.
You already know there are teams that are more likely to win this week - that list can be found above. However, you can take those clubs at numerous other times this season. The Browns were assigned a win total of eight before the campaign, which suggests it's viable to use them at some point. Doing so now means a future week where we can use a better team.
If the Jets can get a rare road win against a quality roster, then we'll tip our cap. However, if Cleveland survives, we'll have burned a back-end top-18 team early and differentiated ourselves from the dozens, hundreds, or thousands of other contestants in a competition designed to have a singular winner.
Pick: Browns
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.