TNF player props: Trotting out a pair of unremarkable ponies

Last season, we rock and rolled our way to the Super Bowl with music-themed Thursday Night Football player props, joyfully celebrating the start of a new NFL week. This year, we'll use an episode from "Must See TV" cornerstone "Seinfeld" each week to remind us that betting is supposed to be fun, even when an absurd series of events leads to a losing bet.

"Do you know what the odds are on that? Who leaves a country packed with ponies to come to a non-pony country?"

Episode two of season two of "Seinfeld" is the first instance of the core characters offending people by accident when Jerry angers an elderly distant cousin by saying he hates anyone who had a pony. On Thursday night, we have a matchup of two allegedly good equine teams that have been largely objectionable this season. With the Colts and Broncos trotting onto the field, we've got an appropriately named episode to help us pick out a few prop plays.

"The Pony Remark"

Jerry had the single greatest moment of his life (or close to it) when he threw out a runner at home to send his "Friends O'Clyde" softball team to the championship. Matt Ryan won NFL MVP and had a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl. Things went badly for both afterward.

When it comes to Ryan, we're looking for a play almost as good as Jerry's bet that Kramer won't turn his apartment into a series of levels. Ryan's passing-yard distribution has been wild this season, with games of 195 and 222 against the Chiefs and Jaguars, respectively, along with two games over 350 yards. The latter two games required a comeback effort after the Colts went down two scores early against the pretty soft pass defenses of the Texans and Titans.

The Broncos' defense has allowed 5.3 yards per attempt through the air, tied with the Bills for fourth in the league. Assuming Ryan can even match that average, he'll need to throw the ball 45 times. Luckily for the Colts, the Broncos' offense hasn't shown a propensity for building a lead, given that they have yet to lead at halftime this season.

Even with Jonathan Taylor out, the Colts' best chance to control the ball and keep Ryan from fumbling is to use the ground game against Denver's 20th-best run defense. When it comes to Ryan going over, like Jerry says to Kramer, "It's not that I don't think you can. I know that you can't, and I'm positive that you won't."

Pick: Matt Ryan under 229.5 passing yards (-110)

A TD that's definitely going to happen

Melvin Gordon might have his own "Cousin Leo" grabbing people by the arm in the Broncos' organization and hyping him up, but he's no cousin Jeffrey at the Parks Department:

However, as Jerry might suggest on stage, despite all the fumbles, the Broncos continue to dress Gordon up and prop him up on a pillow. Latavius Murray looked good enough for the Saints in London, but even after signing with Denver on Monday, I don't expect him to get goal-line carries all of a sudden on Thursday. With Javonte Williams out for the season, Nathaniel Hackett says that Gordon will get yet another chance to be the guy - because he always does. But if Gordon fumbles on the way into the end zone, I might need to go on an edible foliage tour.

Pick: Melvin Gordon (+105)

A TD that probably won't happen ... but maybe it does

"He'll do in Riverside now, what he did in Central Park," Uncle Leo said about Cousin Jeffrey.

That's been the attitude the Colts have had about veteran quarterbacks: assuming guys who've done it elsewhere can duplicate it in Indy. But the tight end position is where they seem able to roll through replaceable big targets to make life easier on their castoff QBs.

Kylen Granson sounds like a Seinfeld character - perhaps an offspring of Monya - but the second-year tight end had the most receiving yards of his career last week, hauling in all four of his targets. He hasn't been on the end of an incomplete pass since Week 1 but is still looking for his first career touchdown. Ryan's thrown four of his five touchdowns to the other two Colts' tight ends, but Granson's been on the field for half of the snaps and is ready to haul one in for a score, even if it seems as unfathomable as George thinks scoring might be.

Pick: Kylen Granson (+500)

How to bet: The first two bets should be single-unit wagers - to win a unit on minus prices and more than a unit on a plus-money bet. The last wager should be smaller, trying to win back your standard unit size.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.