NFL Week 5 betting takeaways: Guessing where oddsmakers rate the teams

If you care enough about finding value in the NFL, there's an exercise you can do before, during, and even after the season. We've talked about making your own ratings for teams, but even just ranking teams from 1-32 will go a long way in sorting out your feelings about each squad. However, if you want to dig a little deeper, draw a line after the 16th-ranked team.

Look at the top 16 and pick out eight teams that you think can move up in those rankings and eight to move down. Then, do the same for the bottom 16. What this does is force you to think of some of the good teams in a negative light and view bad teams in a positive one.

For example, if you have the Bills at the top of the NFL, do you mark them in green with an arrow up - projecting them to be even better? Which of the teams around 10th place will move up, and which will move down? In the back half, what are the bad teams you can see moving up into mediocrity and vice-versa? Those opinions should guide the way for your betting through the near term of the season.

How ratings work

We look at the betting market's assessment of each team based on the closing lines from the previous week's games, then we estimate what each club is capable of going forward. The "rating" column is an educated guess at the oddsmakers' rating to create a point spread before their most recent game. The number itself represents the percentage chance that a team beats an average opponent on a neutral field.

The range column is my evaluation of each team's potential after seeing them play this past week. Obviously, clubs don't perform at the same level every week; they play within a range. It's our job as handicappers to predict how they'll perform based on things like the situation, on-field matchups, and roster/injury issues. The earlier it is in the season, the wider a team's range may be.

Rating before Week 5 kickoff

Notable Week 5 results

We rarely project forward in this space; that's what the rest of the week is for. But it's hard not to when we see that the two teams at the top are facing each other in a highly anticipated rematch of a playoff classic. The Chiefs' rating shouldn't move much coming off a 17-point comeback win Monday. So the question is: Should the Bills break through the artificial ceiling of 80? With an early line of Bills -3, that's certainly where oddsmakers have them.

Speaking of the Chiefs, after they handed it to Tampa in Week 4, the market assigned more blame to the Bucs, dropping their rating to a point where they opened just -8 at home to the Falcons. Atlanta got knocked down due to Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts being out (the line went up to -10), but their returns would bump the team back up.

The Packers and Rams have stayed steady with their rating, which is why fading them has been successful the last two weeks. If the market doesn't bring them down, betting against them will generally continue to be the play. However, in the case of Los Angeles, that would mean betting on the Panthers this week, which doesn't sound very appealing.

The middle area of the ratings is interesting. The Broncos, Dolphins, Colts, and Jaguars all need to be discounted for different reasons. We saw on Thursday night why Denver and Indianapolis will see their ratings drop. Miami's quarterback issues will cause the team to drop in the short term as hinted by the opening line for its game with the Vikings. Jacksonville, meanwhile, should have never been bumped up as high as they have been.

You don't need to be a mentalist to predict that the Commanders, Steelers, and Panthers should be marked in red with an arrow down. The teams below them, with respectable performances and outright wins last week, should be passing them sooner rather than later.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.