NFL Week 6 teasers: Backing the Pack' to get on track?

4-2-1 sounds like a good record, and we'd take that against the spread every week. We dream of a 66% rate on underdog moneylines, but that's not going to cut it with teasers.

Last week, we discussed how the schedule provided so many more decent-sized favorites that can be teased down to around a pick'em. However, the Packers and Jaguars flunked those tests, blowing up teaser bets from here to London and back.

Those sorts of teaser legs tend to mirror what happens in survivor contests, so if you're not willing to trust a team with your weekly pick there, you should probably avoid them in a six-point teaser that costs around -270 per leg.

Some games don't have a teaser-worthy point spread. For example, the high-profile Sunday night game has the Eagles as five-point favorites at home to the Cowboys. Teasing Philadelphia would bring the spread through zero, which wastes valuable price points around the improbable chance of a tie.

Teasing Dallas up to +11 would be appealing as it'd get the key numbers through a touchdown, but you're already winning on three- and four-point margins at a -110 price. Getting +6, +7, or +8 over a long sample size isn't worth the price hike.

Let's use the short point spread in the Jets-Packers game as an example of the value of teasing a favorite down.

The pricing significantly jumps once you move across the key number of -3, showing the importance of capturing that number in NFL betting. But more importantly, the Packers' alternative spread (-1) is priced at -320, which is obviously a much larger price than getting them at -1 with our teaser leg at -270.

To get a good deal on the Packers -1, we must pair them with another game and win both to cash the ticket. Fortunately, we can choose that other leg from our weekly "teaser basket" using what we know about key numbers.

Teaser basket

Let's look at the mathematically optimal plays available for Week 6:

It's not a huge list this week, which can be a good thing - it takes away the clutter of numerous sizeable favorites or short underdogs. In our weekly look at what the previous games' closing lines imply about team ratings, we discussed how the Packers should be downgraded after losing to the Giants, having entered that game with a projected rating of 65/100.

Green Bay as seven-point favorites at home to the Jets (after being eight-point favorites to the Giants on a neutral) suggests the team has been downgraded. How much they've been discounted is dependent on how much of an upgrade you're giving the Jets for beating the Skylar Thompson-led Dolphins. I have a hard time getting down to Green Bay for -7, which means - despite the loss in London - there has to be tremendous value on the Packers to merely win outright.

Of the other three games listed, the Buccaneers should handle the Steelers, but crazier things have happened in Pittsburgh. The Jaguars certainly seem to have owned the Colts in recent years, and asking the Indianapolis offense to score nine points - let alone win by nine points - seems like a bit much. That said, the Jaguars didn't exactly light up the scoreboard at home against the Texans last week.

I don't have the Bengals favored in a road game at New Orleans, so it's worth hopping on the +2 to push the Saints up over a touchdown before they get good news on the injury front, which would cause this game line to drop toward a pick'em and evaporate a valuable teaser leg.

The Seahawks - home underdogs to the Cardinals - are on the precipice of teaser eligibility. They're +3 (-120) and would be a valuable teaser leg at +2.5. Meanwhile, the Commanders are one-point 'dogs at Chicago on Thursday. Should that increase at all, they'd become teaser-eligible.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.