TNF player props: Commanders and Bears aim for prime-time upgrade

Last season, we rocked and rolled our way to the Super Bowl with music-themed Thursday Night Football player props, joyfully celebrating the start of a new NFL week. This year, we'll use an episode from "Must See TV" cornerstone "Seinfeld" each week to remind us that betting is supposed to be fun, even when an absurd series of events leads to a losing bet.

"I'm an idiot. You may think you're an idiot, but with all due respect, I'm a much bigger idiot than you." - Jerry after he gets Elaine the apartment above him

Procuring an inexpensive apartment for his ex-girlfriend sounded like a good idea at the time, but so did our prop bets last week. There were two fundamental issues with those plays, though.

Given that our premise involved hoping for two players to score, we needed actual touchdowns in the game. The Colts and Broncos passed on that element during one of the ugliest games in recent memory. Anytime-touchdown bettors spent last Thursday feeling like George Costanza: "Don't insult me, my friend, remember who you're talking to: No one's a bigger idiot than me."

The other issue was that the game went to overtime. Often the enemy of the under, the added time was the only way Matt Ryan's passing yards crawled over the total. Luckily, we can have a laugh, throw on this week's featured "Seinfeld" episode, and move on with our lives.

'The Apartment'

Following up Colts-Broncos is this week's Commanders-Bears matchup, which doesn't appear to be a better alternative - like Jerry when he realizes a constantly rehearsing rock band outbid Elaine for the apartment. We didn't hear a peep from last week's offenses as they faced top 10 defenses in yards per play. This Thursday is a duel of thoroughly mediocre defensive opponents.

One thing the Commanders do well defensively is keeping quarterbacks in the pocket. Despite facing scramble-capable QBs Ryan Tannehill and Trevor Lawrence, along with a quality runner in Jalen Hurts, Washington has allowed just 6.4 rush yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. Justin Fields is most comparable to Hurts (nine carries for 20 yards in Week 3), but his prescribed total of 42.5 is the highest it's been all year.

Fields should also be able to throw on the 26th-best pass defense in yards per pass attempt, which could also cut into his running. It might be a worse idea than a singles weekend in the Poconos, but we'll try another quarterback under.

Pick: Justin Fields under 42.5 rush yards

A TD that's definitely going to happen

George tries wearing a wedding band to see if it will attract women, but hopefully, tricks aren't needed to get someone in the end zone this week. However, it might take a quarterback sneak - maybe after an end-zone pass interference on Washington's shaky secondary - for the Bears signal-caller to lean into the line for a score.

Fields has just one touchdown this season, but he had a long one called back last week against the Vikings and was ruled short of the goal line versus the Packers on a dubious review. We normally prefer a shorter price on our tongue-in-cheek touchdown guarantee, but it's tricky to figure out the tailback usage for both sides.

Pick: Justin Fields anytime touchdown (+200)

A TD that probably won't happen ... but maybe it does

We'll try to be slicker than the mousse in Kramer's hair, relying on the injury report to free up a betting opportunity on a touchdown-scoring long shot.

Jahan Dotson had four touchdowns in four games before missing Washington's game against the Titans, and the Commanders' wide receiver usage switches if he can't go five days later. Dyami Brown caught two long touchdown passes, but Cam Sims was on the field for almost twice as many snaps.

As Jerry says, "People don't turn down money. It's what separates us from the animals." So, if we can get a receiver at 8-1 who'll be on the field in three-WR sets, we'll take the value bet. And when Carson Wentz finds Sims in the end zone, we'll exclaim, "Get out!" like Elaine does for the first of many times throughout the series.

Pick: Cam Sims anytime touchdown (+800)

How to bet: The first two bets should be single-unit wagers - to win a unit on minus prices and more than a unit on a plus-money bet. The last wager should be smaller, trying to win back your standard unit size.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.