NFL Week 6 best bets: Spread, moneyline, total, and teaser
We try to discuss the various elements around the day-to-day action of sports betting - team market valuations, the need not to chase after a tough Sunday, and when to take a low-risk/high-reward shot with your favorite sides. However, we haven't discussed the concept of a bad run.
If Week 4 was weird, Week 5 was downright infuriating. The Packers blew up teasers after a 10-point halftime lead. The Buccaneers didn't cover despite a 21-0 lead in the fourth quarter. The Commanders seemingly became the first team all season not to score from first-and-goal at the 2-yard line. The Jets also tallied 40 points, which seemed impossible.
We're doing just fine with some of our other NFL ventures, going 18-5-2 with our five underdogs of the week and 28-22 on our Sunday props. We're not on a cold streak overall, but the bad breaks from the best bets of the week allow us to practice how we manage emotion in betting. With an infinite amount of games, there's no reason to ever get too high or too low. You can take pride in how you handle a fluky loss as much as you do in cashing a ticket.
| BET TYPE | LAST WEEK | SEASON (units) |
|---|---|---|
| ATS trio | 1-2 (-1.2) | 6-7-2 (-1.7) |
| ML upset | -1 | 3-2 (+3.6) |
| Totals | -1.1 | 1-4 (-3.4) |
| Teasers | -1.2 | 2-3 (-1.6) |
| TOTAL | -4.5 | -3.1 |
Best bets ATS
Saints +2
The Bengals addressed their offensive line in the offseason but didn't actually fix it, and this matchup will exacerbate that weakness. The Saints' defensive line and the Superdome crowd will make life difficult for Cincinnati to get an appropriate jump on the snap.
New Orleans is piecing together offense in various ways. But with Alvin Kamara back up to speed (194 total yards against Seattle) and Taysom Hill doing what he does, the pressure is off Andy Dalton. If Michael Thomas can return this week, we should see the Saints score more than enough to overcome whatever big plays LSU alumni Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase create.
Colts -2
Given their struggles against the Jaguars, we may be banging our head into a wall with the Colts, but this line should be at least a flat -3. The myth that Jacksonville has Indianapolis' number has kept this point spread under a field goal. However, the Colts were missing their receiving weapons in Jacksonville in Week 2, and Indianapolis' defense has been stout - seventh in yards per play allowed - even without Shaquille Leonard.
The shine has come off the Jaguars after shutting out the Colts and beating a battered Justin Herbert. Indianapolis has been much better at home than on the road this season, and this sets up for a good Matt Ryan game.
Eagles -6
Winning a game with defense and special teams is allowed, but Dallas beat the Rams last week without Cooper Rush needing to be good and in a contest where the Cowboys' fanbase took over SoFi Stadium. We saw what a prime-time game in Philadelphia looked like when the Vikings suffered their only loss in Week 2.
Against arguably the league's best offensive line, Dallas' vaunted defensive front seven won't have the advantage they've had during their four-game win streak. The Eagles' offense will fly Sunday night.
Moneyline upset of the week
Our defined parameter for this section is underdogs paying at least +150.
Giants +200
Lamar Jackson is the obvious key to beating the Ravens, and familiarity with his ability is paramount to slowing him down. Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale spent the last few years dealing with Jackson in practice when he coached for Baltimore.
It's a tough spot for New York having to return from London, but Baltimore is coming off a string of tough games and has another divisional matchup next week. Brian Daboll has made it work with limited talent, whereas the Ravens' defense has disappointed with all of theirs. At 2-to-1 odds, we'll take a shot on the Giants finding a way to win for one more week.
Best total bet
Cardinals / Seahawks over 50
Much has been made about the Seahawks' offense with Geno Smith this year, so we'll assume they'll get theirs back home against the Cardinals. However, Arizona should get the biggest production boost this week.
After three games against defenses in the top half of the league in yards per play allowed, Kyler Murray gets his chance to face the 32nd-ranked Seattle defense that's giving up 6.6 yards per play.
In what is lined as a close game, there won't be too many defensive stops. Both teams should reach at least 24 points, combining for over 50.
Best 6-point teaser
Saints +8 / Packers -1.5
Getting the home underdog Saints up over a touchdown is a no-brainer given that we think they're winning outright. We'll pair them with the Packers, giving them a last chance before a radical reconstruction of their rating. A week ago, Green Bay would be closer to -10 in this matchup and out of teaser range, so we'll be content on taking the Packers under a field goal.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.