MNF best bets: Another AFC West clash to come down to the wire
Each Monday we'll finish off the week that was in the NFL with a look at value spots in the remaining game - under one condition: you promise not to chase. Whether Sunday provided a boost to the accounts or left a little to be desired, Monday Night Football provides an opportunity to show responsibility in your betting, as there will always be another wild Sunday to get lost in.
The other two AFC West teams take their turn on Monday Night Football, and a prime-time game for the Broncos and Chargers means the interspersing of two narratives online. For Denver, it's mockery about how much of a mess the offense is and a weekly referendum on Russell Wilson's current place in the league's quarterback hierarchy. For the Chargers, in between jaw-dropping throws from Justin Herbert, we get to scrutinize Chargers head coach Brandon Staley, toggling between "genius" and "buffoon" based on whether or not he goes for it on fourth down and whether or not it's successful. Get your keyboards ready!
Broncos @ Chargers (-4.5, 45.5)
The line opened really high with news of injury being the potential root of Wilson's struggles. It didn't stay at Chargers -6.5 long and has slowly crept downward, but there's still some value left.
In our weekly look at closing lines and what they mean relative to oddsmakers' power ratings, it's suggested the Broncos are merely a league-average team. Had Wilson not thrown the catastrophic interception to give the Colts hope, the Broncos would have gone into their mini-bye week with, at the very least, a stable rating. While that game wasn't pretty, it doesn't warrant a massive downgrade since the market had already been docking Denver for previous performances. As a result, the value proposition for this game is a two-part question.
If we have a stable rating for the Broncos on extra rest, then the Chargers' rating is the X-factor in the equation. They closed at pick'em in Cleveland, and that game was every bit the toss-up that the point spread suggested. By comparison, a week later, the Browns were just 2.5-point favorites to the Patriots. There's only so much higher the Chargers' rating can go up, especially without stars Keenan Allen, Rashawn Slater, and Joey Bosa.
The second element in question: How many points should be factored into home-field advantage (HFA) at Sofi Stadium? With more and more road teams excelling each week - and each year - I have the average HFA league-wide at 1.7 points. Consistently playing in front of visitor-heavy crowds, and at a rest disadvantage this week, I've built in just a half-point home-field advantage for the Chargers.
As a result, my fair price for this game is a flat three points, which means we're not just getting a discount on the key number of three but also winning on a four-point game by taking the points with the Broncos. Look for Denver to create offense from the inside out with their run game. Meanwhile, the defense won't be the same pushover on the ground that Cleveland was last week against the Chargers.
Pick: Broncos +4.5
Austin Ekeler under 61.5 rushing yards
Maybe the Chargers have figured something out in their run scheme in the last two weeks, or maybe they've faced teams giving up the 29th- and 30th-most rushing yards per carry. In nine previous games against the Broncos, Ekeler averaged 31.5 rushing yards. Until facing the Texans and Browns, Ekeler hadn't even reached 31.5 in a game.
Jerry Jeudy longest reception over 21.5 yards
If we expect the Broncos' running game to be effective - no matter who carries the ball - that should open up some shots for Wilson downfield in the passing game. Both Jeudy and Courtland Sutton are in the top 20 in average depth of target (among receivers with 20 targets), so Wilson throws deep to both. Sutton has been Wilson's more trustworthy target, but the Chargers are fully aware of that. Jeudy has more yards-after-catch than Sutton and could get the field-stretching looks in single coverage. At 21.5 yards, all it takes is one big play.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.