NFL Week 7 teasers: More vulnerable touchdown favorites to choose from
A ton of upsets sparked more flames in the smoldering wreckage of survivor contests, and as we alluded to last week, the teasers weren't spared either. You can only lose once to get knocked out of survivor, but for the second straight week, the Packers caused teaser players pain. And if you had sniffed out Aaron Rodgers' struggles and steered clear, his legendary counterpart Tom Brady was just as disappointing with an outright loss at Pittsburgh.
The various +2.5-point spreads teased up over a touchdown were far more successful. Early Week 7 candidates - the Jaguars and Saints - were joined late in the week by the Chiefs, Seahawks, and Patriots and collectively went 5-0. That's more reason to use teasers to play on a game's final score being close.
Some games don't have a teaser-worthy point spread. For example, the Packers are hovering around 5-point favorites in Washington this Sunday. Teasing Green Bay would bring the spread through zero, wasting valuable price points around an improbable tie.
Teasing the Commanders up to +11 would be appealing as it would get the key numbers through a touchdown, but you're already winning on 3- and 4-point margins at a -110 price. Getting +6, +7, or +8 over a long sample size isn't worth the price hike.
Let's use the short point spread in the Thursday night game between the Saints and Cardinals (-2.5) as an example of the value of teasing a short underdog up.
| ALT. SPREAD | ODDS |
|---|---|
| NO +3.5 | -175 |
| NO +4.5 | -185 |
| NO +5.5 | -205 |
| NO +6.5 | -250 |
| NO +7.5 | -320 |
| NO +8.5 | -340 |
The pricing significantly jumps once you move across the key number of -3, showing the importance of capturing that number in NFL betting. More importantly, the Saints' alternative spread (+8.5) is priced at -340, which is obviously a much larger price than getting them at +8.5 with our teaser leg at -270.
To get a good deal on the Saints (+8.5), we must pair them with another game and win both to cash the ticket. Fortunately, we can choose that other leg from our weekly "teaser basket" using what we know about key numbers.
Teaser basket
Let's look at the mathematically optimal plays available for Week 7:
| TEAM | SPREAD | TEASER LEG |
|---|---|---|
| Saints (@ ARI) | +2.5 | +8.5 |
| Cowboys (vs. DET) | -7 | -1 |
| Colts (@ TEN) | +2.5 | +8.5 |
| Ravens (vs. CLE) | -6.5 | -0.5 |
| Raiders (vs. HOU) | -7 | -1 |
| Jets (@ DEN) | +1.5 | +7.5 |
| Chargers (vs. SEA) | -6.5 | -0.5 |
| Dolphins (vs. PIT) | -7 | -1 |
| Patriots (vs. CHI) | -8 | -2 |
Having pointed out the troubles of touchdown favorites - both last week and earlier in the season - we can't help but notice that half the games this week have matchups lined between -6 and -8.
Of note, the Bengals are -6 at home to the Falcons, but their moneyline can be bet at theScore Bet at a price of -250. Not only is that a better price than -270, but you don't need to pair it with a second leg in a parlay.
Of the Cowboys, Ravens, Raiders, Chargers, Dolphins, and Patriots, who do you trust wholeheartedly to win outright by even just a field goal?
Meanwhile, the 2022 season so far suggests that betting on a game to finish within one score is a really good idea, whether it's on a natural point-spread bet or via a teaser. If that's the case, taking your favorite tightly lined game and moving it up over a touchdown is probably the best place to start.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.