TNF player props: What's the deal with the Saints and Cardinals?
Last season, we rocked and rolled our way to the Super Bowl with music-themed Thursday Night Football player props, joyfully celebrating the start of a new NFL week. This year, we'll use an episode from "Must See TV" cornerstone "Seinfeld" each week to remind us that betting is supposed to be fun, even when an absurd series of events leads to a losing bet.
"Now you listen to me, I want details, and I want them right now. I don't have a job, I have no place to go. You're not in the mood? Well, you get in the mood!" - George excoriating Jerry for being slow to divulge what happened the night before.
In the first of the show's many instances where the characters talk about something without ever saying what they're talking about, episode nine of season two opens with Elaine and Jerry discussing their personal droughts, which might as well have been a conversation about touchdowns on Thursday Night Football lately. We have a vague recollection of them, but the last time we had even an average amount of end zone appearances, most people's "hair was a lot shorter."
Some day we hope to score again, but with the banged-up Saints heading to the desert to take on the Cardinals' broken offense, I'm not sure our thirst is getting quenched just yet.
'The Deal'
Let's start our attempt to combine "this, that, and the other" with this look of intrigue at a Saints' veteran ready to go on short notice. Questionable tags abound about who will be available for New Orleans on a short week, but I think the offense gets distributed more evenly out of the backfield in an attempt to keep Alvin Kamara from wearing out.
Since Andy Dalton took over, Mark Ingram has augmented his rushing yards with catches out of the backfield in two of three games. With significant passing targets sidelined, expect Ingram to get double-digit carries. With even slightly less than his four yards-per-carry average and a modest gain on a reception, he should be able to get to 33 yards from scrimmage. Hopefully, it doesn't take long to be "very impressed with the first one."
Pick: Mark Ingram over 32.5 combined rushing + receiving yards
A TD that's definitely going to happen
Getting any kind of TNF touchdown seems harder than shopping for birthday gifts for a significant other, but this week it's hopefully easier than coming up with a way to win at blackjack.
"You can't expect to forget the past completely," but knowing that DeAndre Hopkins is making his season debut off a PED suspension and not the nebulous uncertainty of an injury is important to determine how he'll play in his first game of the year.
Hopkins hadn't had a 100-yard receiving game before getting hurt against the Packers last campaign, but the Cardinals were 7-0 and seventh in the league in offensive yards per play. Hopkins had seven of his eight total touchdowns in those first seven games.
If we hypothesize that Hopkins is the key to unlocking Kyler Murray and the Cardinals' offense, with Saints' top cornerback Marshon Lattimore out, we should grab him at plus-money to score and "it's almost stupid if we didn't!"
Pick: DeAndre Hopkins anytime touchdown (+120)
A TD that probably won't happen ... but maybe it does
Kramer gets Elaine a bench that she coveted for her birthday. So we'll go to the bench to grab our long-shot touchdown. The Cardinals spent a second-round pick on tight end Trey McBride, and after minimal time on the field in the first three games, the rookie out of Colorado State has played an average of 35% of Arizona's offensive snaps in the last three games, sliding in as the team's TE2.
When it comes to McBride scoring his first career touchdown, you might be thinking, "Where are you living? Are you here? Are you on this planet? It can't be done!" Maybe not, but a 6-foot-3, 250-pound target that the Cardinals invested in will eventually get a smoldering look from Kliff Kingsbury. It's unlikely, but a bet of $24.26 at +750 would bring back $182, or if you're feeling more like Costanza, risking $12.13 would earn you $91, and it will feel like your birthday.
Pick: Trey McBride anytime touchdown (+750)
How to bet: The first two bets should be single-unit wagers - to win a unit on minus prices and more than a unit on a plus-money bet. The last wager should be smaller, trying to win back your standard unit size.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.