MNF best bets: Patriots to make prime-time statement
Each Monday we'll finish off the week that was in the NFL with a look at value spots in the remaining game - under one condition: you promise not to chase. Whether Sunday provided a boost to the accounts or left a little to be desired, Monday Night Football provides an opportunity to show responsibility in your betting, as there will always be another wild Sunday to get lost in.
The football world gets its first prime-time look at the Patriots this season, and it might be in for a surprise. Both Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe are top six in the NFL in yards per pass attempt. Calling New England's offense explosive might be an exaggeration without a star receiver stretching the field in the traditional fashion, but the team has frequently schemed up modest chunk plays through the air.
Stand-alone game scrutinizers have potentially had their fill of the Bears, having seen Justin Fields struggle against the Packers in Week 2 and the Commanders in Week 6. With that in mind, we'll opt not to overcomplicate things in the handicap for Monday night's matchup.
Bears @ Patriots (-8.5, 40.5)
Bill Belichick's Patriots have never lost at home to a rookie quarterback. While Fields isn't a rookie, he's in his first year with an offensive system, and Monday marks just his 17th career start. It won't help that Chicago has a true rookie head coach as well.
The Patriots boast a top-10 pass defense so far this season, but it's their plan for keeping Fields from getting loose outside of the pocket that will be paramount to their success. It will have to be better than what they brought against the Ravens earlier this season when Lamar Jackson ran for 107 yards.
Those watching last Thursday saw the Commanders deploy a spy at the linebacker level. Though Fields' 12 carries for 88 yards make it seem like that didn't work, his primary damage came in three situations:
- Breaking multiple tackles in the backfield and escaping the pocket
- Being allowed to take off and run at the end of the first half against 'prevent defense'
- One 39-yard run in the final minutes
None of those instances were particularly threatening to the Commanders' chances of winning. What was an issue for Washington was its offense. That hasn't been the case for the Patriots. With 447 yards against the Ravens and 399 yards against the Browns - two defenses that rate similarly to Chicago - New England's offense is doing enough to complement a defense that should bury a Bears team that will be lucky to score double-digit points.
Pick: Patriots -8.5
DeVante Parker over 29.5 receiving yards
Jones targeted Parker 10 times against the Ravens, and though they connected just five times, they combined for 156 yards. Zappe was less comfortable airing it out in one-on-one situations, while Parker missed the Patriots' clash with the Lions. That might be why his total is relatively low here. He'll sail over this yardage number if Jones still considers him a reliable target, and they may only need one long connection to make it happen.
Patriots over 2.5 team sacks (-120)
Fields has been sacked 23 times in six games, and the Commanders would have increased that number if not for his illusiveness. Expect the Patriots' complex coverages to force Fields into holding the ball a beat too long as their rushers do a better job tackling and increase their 7.49% season sack rate.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.