NFL Week 8 round-robin underdog moneyline parlay

It was another 2/5 effort last week, with the Lions and Texans unable to cling to second-half leads. This was the first time three outright underdogs didn't cover the spread after two failed to each previous week this season. At 23-10-2 against the spread, single-spread bets have offset our bonus wager, which hopes to prey on chaos.

The worst part about Week 7 was the pair of outrageous upsets just sitting there waiting for us to pick them. The Buccaneers' loss at Carolina and the Bears' upset of New England were reminders that there's no such thing as too crazy of a bet.

How it works

We parlay five underdogs we like ATS together in 10 different three-team parlays. Using every combination of a three-team parlay is called a round robin. We'll use a total of 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-team parlays and one five-team parlay, each for .1 units. You'll likely double your money if three teams pull off the upset. If four teams win, you're connecting on four separate parlays and will be very pleased with the return. If all five teams win, as they did for us in Week 1 last season, you'll be diving into a silo of gold doubloons like a young Scrooge McDuck.

Who to play

Cardinals +160

The Cardinals have been surprisingly good on the road, going 10-2 outright - along with 10 covers - since the start of last season. Meanwhile, what was your favorite recent Vikings home win? Barely beating the Lions with a miracle comeback, or barely beating the Bears after coughing up a three-score lead? Or maybe it was when they survived a trip to London against the Saints without half of New Orleans' starting offense?

Arizona's defense is sneakily underrated, with its metrics lagging due to an outlier season opener when the Cardinals were short-handed against the Chiefs. The Vikings run the same offense as the Rams, who Arizona prepares for in-division.

Along with his issues in prime time, Kirk Cousins' less-heralded shortcoming is his 2-5 ATS record coming out of a bye. In this case, Minnesota doesn't have much more of a rest advantage since the Cardinals played last Thursday.

Saints +110

Two weeks ago, the Bengals were -2 in New Orleans, and now the Raiders are getting the same treatment. The Saints were shorthanded against Cincinnati, but it didn't stop them from taking a nine-point fourth-quarter lead. Last week, a pair of unfortunate pick-6s derailed their chances in Arizona. Even with all of the team's offensive injuries, New Orleans is behind just Buffalo, Kansas City, and Seattle in yards per play.

Meanwhile, Las Vegas' margin of victory last week was cosmetically enhanced by Josh Jacobs running through the Texans. Although the Saints' defense has given up 5.7 yards per rush in its last three games, this is the same unit that allowed a league-low 3.7 yards per carry last year. With the same core personnel, New Orleans should be capable of fixing those issues.

Steelers +400

With no point spreads around a touchdown, we're searching for a team capable of pulling off a big upset, or being the victim of one. Sure, the Eagles are undefeated, but there's nothing in league bylaws saying undefeated teams can never lose.

Pittsburgh's got a big upset under its belt and almost nabbed another last week. The Eagles' offense has been impressive in the first halves of games, but a dip in scoring in the second half shows it can be vulnerable to adjustments. With Kenny Pickett already showing improvement, the Steelers could hold down the Eagles just enough to where one strange bounce puts Philadelphia in unfamiliar territory: at a deficit in the fourth quarter.

Commanders +130

Why not go back to the Commanders? Taylor Heinicke should be more comfortable indoors in his second start of the season after being wild with the football in wet conditions last week. However, this is more about the Colts' quarterback.

Sam Ehlinger isn't a supreme athletic project or a late bloomer. A four-year starter at Texas, the Colts wouldn't have acquired both Matt Ryan and Nick Foles if they loved what they saw from Ehlinger. It's possible Ehlinger turns out to be Dak Prescott or Jalen Hurts, but it's more probable we're getting plus-money with a defensive line that torments a bad Colts offensive line and, in turn, an overmatched quarterback.

Browns +160

Things are derailing in Cleveland, but prime time in the Dawg Pound won't be as easy for Cincinnati as a home game against the Falcons' decimated secondary. The Browns' defensive communication got a boost from adding Deion Jones at middle linebacker last week, and soggy conditions could slow the passing games Monday night. Joe Burrow struggled last season in his one matchup with Cleveland, where the Browns ran for 6.7 yards per carry in a 41-16 win.

Here's how the odds look this week:

Who are your five underdogs for a football betting lottery ticket?

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.