NFL Week 8 best bets: Spread, moneyline, total, and teaser

We won a total last week - which was cool. We won another upset moneyline bet of the week - which was very cool. However, the spread bets continue to be snake-bitten. From a macro standpoint, the Jets made two offensive plays all game, but the Broncos missed kicks and lost despite a box score that favored them in almost all categories. From a micro standpoint, Jamaal Williams fumbled at the goal line in the fourth quarter on a play that looked to give the Lions a lead in Dallas, and a path to at least cover. We'd make both losing bets again.

Best bets ATS

Cowboys -10

This sat at -9.5 throughout the week. Hopefully, it goes back there, as this is the highest I'd bet the Cowboys at. However, the matchup is too good to pass up.

The Bears put on tape that they're willing to run Justin Fields by design. Now the Cowboys know what to expect, and they have the sideline-to-sideline defensive speed to stop it.

Dallas turns quarterback pressure into sacks and turnovers, while Fields and the Bears get sacked and turn it over frequently.

For all of the good Chicago vibes from Monday night, the team traded Robert Quinn - who was seeing the most double teams of any defensive end in the league - days later. That will allow opponents to use an extra blocker against the league's 10th-worst run defense. Whether Elliott Ezekiel can go, or it's just Tony Pollard, Dak Prescott's life will be very easy in his second game back.

49ers moneyline (-120)

The 49ers' defense got worked over last week, but Patrick Mahomes will do that to you. Even though San Francisco isn't fully healthy, neither are the Rams, who lost another offensive tackle before their bye week.

We've been backing San Francisco in this matchup for years, and it's been successful as the Jimmy Garoppolo-Kyle Shanahan combo remains undefeated against the spread. Another full week of preparation means that Christian McCaffrey gets that much more involved. Plus, Trent Williams made it through last week healthy, helping an offensive line that did fine against the Rams earlier this season.

They don't have the same value as in the past when the Niners were underdogs in Los Angeles, but they're still the better team and worth buying a cheap moneyline of -120.

Seahawks -3

In Coach of the Year conversations, Pete Carroll gets lumped in with Brian Daboll and other candidates from surprising teams. The difference between the Seahawks and Giants is that the metrics actually back up Seattle being good. Third in offensive DVOA and improving weekly on defense, the Seahawks return home to take on a Giants team that continues a travel schedule of London-New-York-Jacksonville-New York-Seattle. Plus, New York's numbers don't suggest a 6-1 team.

Moneyline upset of the week

Our defined parameter for this section is underdogs paying at least +150.

Cardinals +160

We referenced the Cardinals' defense in the round-robin moneyline parlay, but what makes them worth taking on the moneyline on their own is Arizona's offense when DeAndre Hopkins is available.

Hopkins played both outside and in the slot in his return last week, catching 10 passes for 103 yards. Having played Thursday, Arizona had a short week with two fresh pieces but now has had the "mini-bye" to get the combination of Hopkins, Rondale Moore, and Robbie Anderson in the right roles. Meanwhile, the Vikings' defense gave up 385 passing yards to the combination of Skylar Thompson and Teddy Bridgewater before Minnesota's bye week.

Best total bet

Steelers / Eagles under 43 points

Whether it's the under or the Steelers +10.5, or those hoping for a moneyline payout, our handicap on this game hopes Pittsburgh is prepared for the Eagles' offense in the first half. The Dolphins scored a touchdown on their first drive and never got in the end zone again, so if the Steelers can survive the scripted portion of Philadelphia's game plan with a defense that's gotten healthier and adjusted to life without T.J. Watt, they can battle in the trenches with neither team capable of an offensive explosion.

Best 6-point teaser

Saints +7.5 / Commanders +9

We'll dare the Raiders to win by two scores, trusting a Saints offense that's fourth in yards per play. Last week, Mark Ingram and Taysom Hill were taken out of the game thanks to a trailing game script, but New Orleans can hold up against Josh Jacobs and keep this score close.

If you can find the Commanders at +3 (-110), that's good enough for a bet on its own. But if you don't want to pay -120 now, you can bump them up to +9 and dare Sam Ehlinger to beat you by double digits.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.