NFL Week 9 teasers: Eyeing market moves to guide the way
Week 8 only provided tease-up options with mixed results. The Jets lingered, while the Saints and Broncos didn't need any points. Alternatively, the Texans and Rams couldn't hang with their opponents at home.
Week 9 provides a similar setup to last week, where if you want to continue to play to the idea of a close game, you'll have a few options, especially with some line moves providing a hint of where the value lies.
Some games don't have a teaser-worthy point spread. For example, the Patriots have moved from -6.5 down to 5.5-point favorites at home to the Colts. Teasing New England would bring the spread through zero, wasting valuable price points around an improbable tie. Instead of paying -270 to tease the Patriots down in that scenario, they are available for -240 on the moneyline at theScore Bet, and you wouldn't need to pair it with anything.
Teasing the Colts up to +11.5 seems appealing, as it would get the key numbers through a touchdown, but you're already winning on a 3-point or 4-point margin at a -110 price. Getting +6 to +11 over a long sample size isn't worth the price hike to -270.
There is one example of a tease-down situation with the Bengals lined as 7.5-point favorites at home to the suddenly dangerous Panthers. Let's use the lone favorite of just over a touchdown as an example of the value of teasing a favorite down.
| ALT. SPREAD | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Bengals -6.5 | -145 |
| Bengals -5.5 | -175 |
| Bengals -4.5 | -188 |
| Bengals -3.5 | -210 |
| Bengals -2.5 | -315 |
| Bengals -1.5 | -325 |
Notice the pricing significantly jumps once you move across the key number of -3, showing the importance of capturing that number in NFL betting. More importantly, the Bengals' alternative spread (-1.5) is priced at -325, which is obviously a much larger price than getting them at -1.5 with a teaser leg at -270.
To get a good deal on the Bengals (-1.5), we must pair them with another bet and win both to cash the ticket. Fortunately, we can choose that other leg from our weekly "teaser basket" using what we know about key numbers.
Teaser basket
Let's look at the mathematically optimal plays available for Week 9:
| TEAM | SPREAD | TEASER LEG |
|---|---|---|
| Bengals | -7.5 | -1.5 |
| Jaguars | +2 | +8 |
| Seahawks | +2 | +8 |
| Saints | +2.5 | +8.5 |
Despite getting shutout in New Orleans on Sunday, the Raiders have taken money from the game opening at pick'em. Whether the market's disinterested in the Jaguars after their trip to London or there's reason to buy the idea that Las Vegas should be getting healthier in Florida for the week, buying the Jags at any price would be going against the market's first move toward the Raiders.
On the flip side, the Seahawks opened as 3-point underdogs to the Cardinals, and the market quickly moved on Seattle. If you're looking to follow that move, you have missed out on getting the flat three on a traditional point spread bet, but losing out on +9 as a teaser leg isn't usually the end of the world.
Even more drastically, the Saints have moved all the way from +3.5 to +2.5 in their Monday Night Football matchup against the Ravens, but, like with the Seahawks, there's still a chance to back the Saints via a 6-point teaser.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.