NFL Week 9 round-robin underdog moneyline parlay

The Browns dog-walked the Bengals on Monday night, and last week's round-robin underdog parlay cashed. We won't use an exclamation point to celebrate it, though. Our three winners were the three shortest 'dogs on the card, doing little more than paying back our original investment.

If there's value on the moneyline, there's value against the spread, so another 3-2 ATS week moves that record to 26-12-2 on the season, showing that a 68% win rate there means we're on the right track more often than not.

How it works

We parlay five underdogs we like ATS together in 10 different three-team parlays. Using every combination of a three-team parlay is called a round robin. We'll use a total of 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-team parlays and one five-team parlay, each for .1 units. You'll likely double your money if three teams pull off the upset. If four teams win, you're connecting on four separate parlays and will be very pleased with the return. If all five teams win, as they did for us in Week 1 last season, you'll be diving into a silo of gold doubloons like a young Scrooge McDuck.

Who to play

Panthers +280

I still think the Panthers are looking for their third straight win because I'm having a hard time processing how they lost to the Falcons. At least two makeable game-winning kicks mean they're still hungry. More importantly, back-to-back weeks of 6.9 and 6.5 yards per play should reduce worries about Carolina's offense after it struggled mightily in PJ Walker's first start.

We've never had an issue with the Panthers' defensive talent, and after watching Myles Garrett wreck the Bengals' offensive line on Monday, it's easy to envision Carolina's inside-outside combo of Derrick Brown and Brian Burns doing the same, especially since Joe Burrow seems to miss Ja'Marr Chase more than the market expected. A vulnerable big favorite lacking confidence is exactly what we want for this bet.

Lions +160

Speaking of vulnerability, how about the 2022 Packers? Their psyche is such that they were searching for moral victories going into the second half against the Bills on Sunday night. While they might have found some, trade-deadline help for Aaron Rodgers was nowhere to be found, so Green Bay may continue to stumble as the team travels to face the Lions.

Maybe the Packers' offense awakens against a bad Detroit defense, but that still might not be enough after the Lions found their offense again last week. A different team at home, Detroit admittedly has a hard time winning. But at this price, the Lions are worth a shot.

Colts +200

The Patriots were a (legitimate) roughing the passer penalty from facing an insurmountable deficit against the Jets. The Colts, meanwhile, were a Terry McLaurin "Mossing" Stephon Gilmore away from beating the Commanders and covering last week. Had those singular plays flipped, this spread might be lower - and the moneyline not so juicy.

After firing its offensive coordinator, we must hope Indianapolis will work to get Sam Ehlinger out of the pocket more this week, especially after the Bears had success running Justin Fields in New England. But it's the Patriots' offense that has looked lifeless recently, and the Colts' defense is as healthy as it's been all season.

Bears +175

Whether it's praying for a deluge or letting the Soldier Field grass grow to the players' knees, the Bears probably need some true home-field advantage to slow down the Dolphins. But at least Chicago's offense came to life on two separate occasions last week.

Trading away a second star defensive player isn't ideal. But the Bears will happily ply their ground game if the forecasted typical Chicago winds are in play, daring Tua Tagovailoa to rip throws through the gusts and leave open the possibility for an upset.

Saints +125

I'll sit here with my Mardi Gras beads, the last person believing in the Saints this season. Their top-10 ranking in both offensive and defensive yards per play tells me they might be better than their record suggests. That's especially true when that record took hits in games that saw the Saints tied with the Buccaneers in the fourth quarter, tragically miss a game-tying kick in London, hold a nine-point fourth-quarter lead against the Bengals, and suffer two fluky pick-sixes against the Cardinals.

The Ravens are routinely banged up, and the market seems happy to make excuses for them. But a Monday Night clash in New Orleans is a tough spot for a team that trails the home underdogs in yards per play on both sides of the ball.

Here's how the odds look this week:

Who are your five underdogs for a football betting lottery ticket?

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.