MNF best bets: Same old for undefeated Eagles?
Each Monday, we'll finish off the week that was in the NFL with a look at value spots in the remaining game - under one condition: You promise not to chase. Whether Sunday provided a boost to the accounts or left a little to be desired, Monday Night Football provides an opportunity to show responsibility in your betting, as there will always be another wild Sunday to get lost in.
For the third straight game, the Eagles are double-digit favorites. Get used to it. With an alarmingly soft schedule on the road to a potential perfect regular season, it won't be the last time. They split the last two scenarios laying more than 10 points, but this time, they're going against a division foe, albeit one they laid waste to earlier this season.
The Commanders have since swapped out quarterbacks and have mostly found success in close games. Unfortunately for the half-dozen or so remaining Washington fans, staying close in a Monday nighter in Philadelphia is a different task than a reeling Packers team at home, the Sam Ehlinger Colts, and the seemingly addicted-to-drama Vikings.
Commanders @ Eagles (-11, 43.5)
The last we saw the Eagles, it was also in prime time in a weird matchup at the Texans. A short week and a cross-conference opponent made it understandable that they would start a little slow. The Eagles gave up two touchdowns in the first half but just three points the rest of the way. Perhaps a well-rested version of the team with home-field-infused defensive energy is more stout from kickoff on Monday night?
This is a different matchup, though. Taylor Heinicke's frenetic mobile style of lobbing balls into dangerous areas with the hopes that his quality receivers will win 50-50 situations is the opposite of the statuesque Davis Mills rifling passes to less-heralded targets. Defensively, the Commanders' front is the strength of their team as a whole, whereas the Texans provide little pressure and even less resistance against the run.
From a game-planning standpoint, Philadelphia doesn't have to go far to find something that should work. This sets up more like the Steelers game the week prior, where Jalen Hurts can air it out with advantages down the field. In fact, that's exactly how the Eagles attacked Washington earlier this season, with three receivers catching passes of 38-plus yards and DeVonta Smith tallying eight receptions for 169 yards.
Heinicke's three starts have featured repeated turnover-worthy plays that either the Eagles' defensive line will take advantage of via sack-fumbles or a secondary with Darius Slay and James Bradberry will be there to pick off the errant passes. With a rabid Philadelphia atmosphere, the Commanders will likely fall behind early, and while the backdoor cover is always a concern with a spread this high, I think the Eagles pull far enough away to avoid late-game spread hijinks.
Pick: Eagles -11
DeVonta Smith over 53.5 receiving yards
As mentioned above, Smith had a big game earlier this season against this same opponent. So why is this line so relatively low? Because Smith has gone over 44 yards just once since that Week 3 game. However, with the expectation of less success on the ground than usual, Smith should have a nice combination of space and opportunity against the Commanders' secondary.
Jalen Hurts longest rush over 12.5 yards
This is a compliment to the Commanders' ability to get pressure. It won't be enough to do significant damage, but there'll be more than a few occasions where Hurts will happily take off and run. Whether it's those scrambles or occasional designed runs off of read-option keepers, Hurts will get loose for a big gain.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.