NFL Week 11 round-robin underdog moneyline parlay

Single eyebrows were collectively raised when the Chargers took a 10-0 lead over the 49ers on Sunday night. L.A.'s decrepit roster couldn't hang on for victory to connect four parts of our bet, so we settled for three out of five and a modest return for the fourth time this season - thanks to the Vikings' and Packers' dramatic comebacks. Of course, the round-robin underdog moneyline parlay is just one bet, and betting each team against the spread individually went 4-1 for a 32-17-2 record this season.

How it works

We parlay five underdogs we like against the spread in 10 different three-team parlays. Using every combination of a three-team parlay is called a round robin. We'll use a total of 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-team parlays and one five-team parlay, each for .1 units. You'll likely double your money if three teams pull off the upset. If four teams win, you're connecting on four separate parlays and will be very pleased with the return. If all five teams win, you'll be diving into a silo of gold doubloons like a young Scrooge McDuck.

Who to play

Bears +140

Justin Fields on a fast track feels fun, doesn't it? The line has dropped from a lookahead of +4 down to +3, but there's still value left on the Bears. Their offense has come alive, averaging over 30 points in their last four games. Those opponents haven't been defensive pushovers, either, with the Patriots and Cowboys on that list. Meanwhile, the Falcons' offense has taken a small downturn.

Both teams should have success against two of the worst defenses in the league, but while the Falcons are used to playing on the turf in the dome, the Bears' most impressive offensive showing this year was in similar conditions in Dallas. Fundamentally, these two teams are essentially equal, and taking a decent plus price on the Bears is worth making them a staple of this bet.

Texans +140

The Texans had every opportunity to not just cover but win the game in New York on Sunday, averaging 6.4 yards per play to the Giants' 5.5. The latter number was inflated by a missed open field tackle by rookie Jalen Pitre on Darius Slayton that turned what should have been a fourth-down punt into a 54-yard touchdown. Take those yards and points off the board, and you've got an entirely different statistical profile and perception of a game that not a lot of people were locked in on.

As for the Commanders, we tip our cap for one of the biggest upsets of the year. But find me a tougher spot to get up for - six days after that win over the Eagles - than a non-conference road game in Houston. Monday's result notwithstanding, the Commanders are still rated as a below-average football team, which is still good enough to be favored here but bad enough to drop a game to a Texans team that's playing better than most think.

Colts +250

Here's where we get a little loose. Unsurprisingly, the Colts are a better football team with a borderline future Hall-of-Fame quarterback operating an offense that, with Jeff Saturday heading on-field operations, should constantly hand the ball to their All-Pro tailback, who finally seems healthy. Jonathan Taylor can follow the same route the Commanders took when they handed the ball off 44 times against a defense without run-stopping defensive tackle Jordan Davis. With the Eagles missing Dallas Goedert, potentially having a compromised A.J. Brown, and facing the second-best run defense in the league, they could get surprised again.

Steelers +170

Surprise, surprise! Getting the reigning Defensive Player of the Year back means something to the Steelers' overall rating. With T.J. Watt's return, any spread over a field goal is too much in a matchup that was lined at Bengals -6.5 in Cincinnati in Week 1. Flipping three points on home-field advantage (1.5 per side), the line would be Cincinnati -3.5. Now Joe Burrow is without Ja'Marr Chase, which has to mean something. At a time in the season where all you can ask for is a few percentage points of win probability, there's value in the Steelers to beat the Bengals again.

Chargers +190

The spread opened at Chiefs -7, which was objectively too high. I froze and missed out on Chargers +7 because - as was depicted repeatedly on Sunday night - the injuries are out of control in Los Angeles. That didn't stop some intrepid bettors Wednesday, as money came in on the Bolts to bring the line down under a touchdown. This may be an indication of a more optimistic Chargers injury report, with a potential return of Keenan Allen and/or Mike Williams to help Justin Herbert. L.A. will have Derwin James - always a thorn in the side of Travis Kelce - which could keep this game close, making the Chargers' moneyline playable around +200 as a fraction of this bet.

Here's how the odds look this week:

Who are your five underdogs for a football betting lottery ticket?

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.