NFL Week 11 player props: Cold weather and hot streaks

We thought new Colts head coach Jeff Saturday might have Sam Ehlinger on a short leash last week, but that leash was even shorter than expected. Ehlinger didn't play a snap, keeping us from a freebie winner. Hopefully, a 6-3 record on the remaining plays has given us some momentum. With an eye on Sunday's forecast, here are 10 more bets based largely on playing conditions.

Matthew Stafford under 229.5 passing yards

Handicapping the Rams this week is all about assessing their ability without Cooper Kupp. The market seems unlikely to underreact to the absence of the reigning Offensive Player of the Year. But while Stafford's yards total is 15-20 yards lower than in his last two games against comparable defenses, he's 7-2 to the under on previously prescribed numbers with Kupp. We'll bet that both Stafford - and Kupp's absence - are underrated.

Davis Mills over 19.5 completions

This figure represents Mills' average completions in home games this season, but those four data points include a contest against the Eagles in which the Texans found some success running the ball.

Mills easily surpassed this number in last week's road clash with the Giants as Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins rejoined Houston's offense. Mills' splits, meanwhile, are better at home than they are on the road. With Cooks and Collins playing together at NRG Stadium for the first time since Week 4, he'll look to exploit a below-average Commanders secondary on a short week.

Josh Allen over 276.5 passing yards

Allen made something of a surprise start last week and seemed to escape unscathed. Now he and the Bills get a rare indoor game and a chance to exploit a vulnerable defense. The Browns lost another defensive back when Greg Newsome went down in practice this week; considering Cleveland gave up 285 passing yards to Tua Tagovailoa last week, less depth in the secondary is a problem against a quarterback averaging over 300 yards this season.

Hunter Henry over 23.5 receiving yards

The Patriots' offense seems to work better when the tight end is involved, and Henry's best games have come in three of New England's four outings scoring 26 points or more. Only three teams have allowed more receptions to opposing tight ends than the Jets, so Henry should be a key weapon in the Patriots' game plan.

Jonathan Taylor over 85.5 rushing yards

Taylor ran over the Raiders with his highest carry total since Week 1, and that can't be a coincidence with Saturday at the helm. From the Texans to the Commanders to the Colts, the word is out that the Eagles struggle against the run; they know it too, having signed Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph this week. Taylor will surpass 25 carriers and flirt with the century mark after the Colts' offensive line earned its best grade of the year last week.

Justin Fields' longest rush over 17.5 yards (-130)

Sportsbooks are unlikely to shut down because of one player prop, so we'll just keep trying Fields on the run. His total has risen nicely to 69.5, but the Bears quarterback will probably require one of his patented splashy runs to hit that number. In an indoor matchup against the Falcons, a 20-yard takeoff shouldn't even be all that splashy.

Baker Mayfield over 0.5 passing touchdowns (-130)

This is a truly insulting line with minimal juice. Maybe Mayfield doesn't throw a touchdown pass, but at -130 to do so, we have to back the Panthers' Week 1 starter. For all his struggles this season, he's gone scoreless only once in five starts and threw two touchdowns in a recent relief appearance.

Jared Goff under 223.5 passing yards

Wind, cold weather, and an opponent that struggles to defend the run should have Lions head coach Dan Campbell salivating over the chance to grind out a game in the trenches. Goff's historical struggles in poor passing conditions should suppress his volume, too, especially since the Giants don't have the offense to build a big lead.

Kenny Pickett longest pass completion under 32.5 yards

Both defenses are top 10 in rush yards per carry, and the Bengals are getting nose tackle DJ Reader back; there shouldn't be many tackle box overloads in this game. A late start should make for particularly chilly conditions in Pittsburgh, so we'll fade hopes for a deep ball from the Steelers' rookie quarterback.

Justin Jefferson under 96.5 receiving yards

This is Jefferson's highest total of the season, with the Vikings star earning six straight overs on his yardage prop and the attention of the football world this week. But the Cowboys will be a tough matchup for Jefferson, partly because their pass rush should make it difficult for Kirk Cousins to find him downfield.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.