NFL Week 14 best bets: Spread, moneyline, total, and teaser
We learned a lesson about overleveraging on one game the hard way in Week 13. Both the spread and the teaser in Ravens-Broncos were lost early when Lamar Jackson was injured in the first half. Denver's nine points wouldn't have been a high bar to clear for a healthy Jackson. Meanwhile, the Jets (+3) dragged out a non-cover in the slowest, most absurd way possible, repeatedly flailing at the goal line.
Even weirder Sunday - we actually won on a total, as Chiefs-Bengals ducked under 53 points.
| BET TYPE | LAST WEEK | SEASON (units) |
|---|---|---|
| ATS trio | 1-2 (-1.2) | 20-14-5 (+4.6) |
| ML upset | -1 | 6-7 (+4.2) |
| Totals | +1 | 4-9 (-5.9) |
| Teasers | -1.2 | 6-7 (-2.4) |
| TOTAL | -2.4 | +0.5 |
Best bets ATS
Bills -10 (+100)
Five weeks ago, the Bills built an early 11-point lead at New York after closing -10.5. Four weeks ago, they amassed a 17-point lead over the Vikings. Since those eventual losses, Buffalo has been strong away from home while the Jets have moved to Mike White at quarterback. He's been productive against two of the league's worst defenses but now has to go to Buffalo and cover a number lower than the teams' last meeting. I'll bet that the Bills, on extra rest, will be prepared to handle the Jets' defense and torment White as they did last season when they intercepted him four times.
49ers -3 (-120)
Bettors are cannonballing off of the 49ers' ship with Jimmy Garoppolo out for the regular season. My calculations would expect San Francisco to be -6.5 or -7 with its starter healthy, so there's a downgrade with Brock Purdy taking over.
But I think this is too much of an adjustment. Purdy took Iowa State to heights the program had never seen. A year after he left, the Cyclones won one conference game. Purdy's measurables hurt his draft stock, but he played well with no notice against the Dolphins, executing in the red zone. He's surrounded by elite talent on the field and in his headset, so a full week of preparation should have him even more comfortable filling Garoppolo's shoes.
Panthers +4
The Seahawks' four-game win streak earlier this season is starting to fade in the rearview mirror. Their recent performances against the Buccaneers, Raiders, and Rams weren't inspiring, and their defense is still subpar. The Panthers should be able to execute their run-heavy approach to keep this game close, and if Sam Darnold can find a couple of key connections with DJ Moore, Carolina can win this game outright.
Moneyline upset of the week
Our defined parameter for this section is underdogs paying at least +150.
Browns +200
It's hard to pick an upset on a week when there wasn't one. Underdogs went 1-13-1, with the Bengals' mini-upset over Kansas City the lone winner. We'll take a shot that Cincinnati is the victim of a surprise this week.
The Browns' defensive line has tormented Cincinnati's offense in the teams' last five meetings. Four of those contests involved Joe Burrow playing some of the worst games of his career, while all of them saw Cincinnati's run game stall. Deshaun Watson's bad game in his return was predictable, but he should be better this week. If he can play to the level of Jacoby Brissett or Baker Mayfield in years past, the Browns can win their third straight game.
Best total bet
Vikings/Lions over 52
In the teams' first matchup - a 28-24 Vikings win - Justin Jefferson had just 14 yards receiving, while an injury limited D'Andre Swift to 46 yards on 10 touches. Amon-Ra St. Brown had a modest 73 yards. As a result, the Vikings and Lions only combined for six red-zone trips, though they converted all of them into touchdowns.
Detroit's 73.9% red-zone conversion rate is the best in the league, and the team has an even higher clip over its last three games. Minnesota is ninth with a 66.6% conversion rate in its last three games. Meanwhile, both defenses are in the bottom third of red-zone conversions. So with the stars likely to augment the yardage, red-zone trips should increase and points should come with it.
Best 6-point teaser
Ravens +8 / Eagles -1
The Giants have come back down to earth, while the Eagles continue to mostly win games with ease. So, we'll trust them to get another victory, even on the road against a division rival. In Pittsburgh, we have a backup quarterback taking on a rookie in December conditions, so the total is appropriately low. Since the Ravens can score reliably from distance even after modest drives thanks to Justin Tucker, we'll back them to keep it within one score.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.