NFL Week 15 round-robin underdog moneyline parlay

Week 14 was another 2-3 effort outright. Thankfully, our five most valuable underdogs went 3-2 against the spread (41-26-3 on the season). On the one hand, the Broncos covered thanks to a big comeback. On the other, one wonders if they could've pulled off a win if Russell Wilson hadn't suffered a head injury. Speaking of injuries, we'll never know how much better the Cardinals' offense would've been with Kyler Murray after he went out on Arizona's first drive of a winnable game.

How it works

We parlay five underdogs we like ATS in 10 different three-team parlays. Using every combination of a three-team parlay is called a round robin. We'll use a total of 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-team parlays and one five-team parlay, each for .1 units. You'll likely double your money if three teams pull off the upset. If four teams win, you're connecting on four separate parlays and will be very pleased with the return. If all five teams win, you'll be diving into a silo of gold doubloons like a young Scrooge McDuck.

Who to play

Colts +180

After winning Jeff Saturday's debut, the Colts lost their next three games. They faced strong pass rushes in the Eagles, Steelers, and Cowboys, but Indianapolis lost those contests due to self-inflicted wounds. Indy fumbled a handoff near the goal line against Pittsburgh and committed numerous fourth-quarter turnovers in Dallas.

The Vikings have the league's third-worst sack rate over the last three games (2.86%), while their season-long metrics also put them near the bottom. The Colts' season got off the rails early with their offensive veterans fluctuating in and out of the lineup. However, as long as Saturday has a relatively healthy group playing hard off their bye, Indy can pull off a win with a better-looking offense and a top-10 defense.

Falcons +180

The Falcons almost beat New Orleans in Week 1, outgaining a healthy Saints team 416-385. After the Buccaneers plunged a sword into New Orleans' season, a veteran team with high expectations will have a hard time playing out the string. Plus, the Saints are being asked to win this game by a decent margin at a high probability.

Desmond Ridder takes over at quarterback coming off of the Falcons' bye, giving Atlanta a potential peek at its future. He won't be a drop-off from Marcus Mariota given that the rookie can use his legs, too, and it's not like his predecessor threw the ball well anyway.

Jaguars +190

Are we sure we shouldn't be worried about the Cowboys? They've now been in close games with the Giants, Colts, and Texans. Dallas' rating has only moved up since its last road game a month ago, and the team has lost twice in three outdoor games this season.

Trevor Lawrence claims he flipped a switch in London. Whether he's another young adult claiming to have found themselves in Europe, or he's just more comfortable with Doug Pederson's offense, the Jaguars quarterback is better than Daniel Jones, Matt Ryan, and a makeshift Texans platoon.

Buccaneers +165

Tampa Bay!? What are you doing here?!

The league's worst team relative to the betting market over the last two-plus months has finally gotten the rating downgrade we've been waiting for. It came just in time for the potential return of starting safeties Antoine Winfield and Mike Edwards, as well as nickel corner Sean Murphy-Bunting. Tristan Wirfs is doubtful again at right tackle, but Trey Hendrickson has a wrist injury and will be compromised if he plays. Throw in a handful of injuries to Joe Burrow's targets and a rare situation with the Bucs as home underdogs, and we'll play on Tom Brady's ability to pull off another victory after an embarrassing loss.

Giants +180

We'll finish off the week with a toss-up where we're getting paid almost two-to-one. Giants-Commanders is such a coin-flip that the two teams literally tied two weeks ago while recording nearly identical yards per play. Jones continued his run of good play against the burgundy and gold by completing 25 of 31 passes while running for 72 yards. With Washington's weak home-field advantage, look for Brian Daboll to make the appropriate adjustments to keep the Giants alive for a big payout with a win amid a wave of blue and red.

Here's how the odds look this week:

Who are your five underdogs for a football betting lottery ticket?

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.